Counties / Virginia / Winchester city

Winchester city, VA

FIPS 51840 · population 27,913 · part of Winchester, VA

$363k
Zillow home value · 2026-06
The numbers

What this county costs and earns

Everything here joins on the county FIPS code, so each figure comes from the agency that publishes it with no name matching in between.

Zillow home value
$363k
▲ 3.6% year over year
Zillow ZHVI · direct
Median asking rent
$1,642
▲ 4.9% year over year
Zillow ZORI · direct
Gross yield
5.4%
annual rent ÷ price, before costs
derived: rent × 12 ÷ price ✓
HUD 2-bed standard
$1,573
market rent is 1.04x the standard
HUD Fair Market Rent · direct
Independent price check

Do two methods point the same way?

Zillow estimates a current home value. FHFA tracks repeat mortgage transactions. Their growth rates should be read side by side, not averaged.

Both annual signals move in the same direction
FHFA five-year cumulative+56.6%not annualized · through 2025
0%ZILLOW ZHVI2026-06+3.6%FHFA HPI2025+6.2%
Annual changes use different methods and may use different periods. The comparison checks direction and magnitude; it does not create a blended estimate. Zillow county ZHVI pulled 2026-07-26; FHFA annual county HPI pulled 2026-07-28.
Owner-reported value$343k
Surveyed gross rent$1,315
Rent burden 30%+55.4%
Median year built1968
Housing composition

Who occupies the stock—and what it is

ACS 2024 5-year
8.4%vacant
12,541estimated housing units
Occupied tenure56.4% renter
owner 43.6%renter 56.4%
Structure mix67.5% single-family
Single-family 67.5%20+ units 4.8%Mobile home 0.1%Other 27.6%
ACS estimates describe the standing housing stock and occupied tenure. They do not measure current listings, transaction prices or asking rents.

Survey source: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30. These values describe different housing universes and are not combined into gross yield.

Annual average covered jobs25,080▲ 0.6% from the prior annual release
Covered establishments1,487annual average reporting locations
Average weekly wage$1,243▲ 3.8% from the prior annual release
Largest private supersectorEducation and health services40.3% of disclosed private covered jobs
Local labor base

Jobs, pay and private-sector concentration

2025
0%COVERED JOBS+0.6%WEEKLY WAGE+3.8%Education and health services40.3%
Annual QCEW counts cover jobs located at reporting establishments. The industry share uses disclosed private covered employment; it is not a resident-employment measure or a forecast.

Workplace source: BLS QCEW — county employment and wages · annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 · pulled 2026-07-31. QCEW counts covered jobs located in the county, not employed residents or the metro score’s CES/LAUS series.

County brief

What the local evidence says

01Decision frame

Winchester city presents a current-income versus resale-liquidity tension: buyers underwriting published rent can investigate the income case, while buyers relying on quick exits should be cautious. Zillow’s county observation labeled 2026-06 reports a $363,487 median home value, up 3.62%, and a $1,642 median asking market rent, up 4.89%. The supplied 5.42% gross yield is based on annual market rent before vacancy, operating costs, financing, insurance, or taxes; it is not a net-return measure.

02Housing economics

Carrying costs qualify that yield. HUD’s two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is $1,573, with market asking rent calculated at 4.4% above it. FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent and cannot replace the published market-rent figure. The effective property-tax rate is 0.76%, a direct drag to test against parcel assessments. FHFA’s annual observation labeled 2025 shows a 6.20% repeat-transaction HPI gain and a 56.61% cumulative five-year gain. It confirms Zillow’s positive price direction, but is not a dollar home value; the different methods and labeled periods must not be averaged into one appreciation rate.

03Demand & competition

Demand evidence is mixed. QCEW annual covered employment measures jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment; both covered jobs and average weekly wages increased. Education and health services accounts for 40.32% of disclosed private covered employment, creating sector concentration within the disclosed private base rather than describing the whole economy. Tax-return migration was net negative, and departing movers reported higher average AGI than arriving movers. Meanwhile, non-occupants accounted for 49 of 316 purchase mortgages, marking possible buyer competition but not investor-owned stock, all-cash activity, or total transaction demand.

04Risk & next checks

Risk review should center on inland flood exposure: modeled annual climate loss equals 0.06% of building value at county level, not a parcel-specific loss estimate. Obtain flood-zone, elevation, insurance, and property-condition evidence before relying on the gross yield. Realtor.com listing price, active listings, days on market, price-reduction share, and pending ratio are not published here, preventing a direct assessment of visible supply, seller concessions, and marketing time. Property-level rent comparables, vacancy, utilities, repairs, insurance quotes, and financing terms are also absent, so net cash flow cannot be determined.

Cities & communities

Where people live within Winchester city

Census-recognized incorporated places and CDPs that intersect this county. The list does not pretend to include every neighborhood or informal community.

Population scale

Largest Census places

ACS 2024 5-year
Winchester city27.9K
Bars use total place population, not a county-share estimate. An asterisk marks a place that crosses a county line.
Official directory

1 Census places

Population
  1. 01
    Winchester cityIncorporated place
    27,913

Population is the total place-wide ACS estimate, not an allocated county share. A place crossing a county line is labelled explicitly. Source: Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30.

Risk, demand and competition

The three things a price does not tell you

01
Risk & carrying costFEMA NRI + Census ACS
Dominant hazardinland flooding

0.064% of building value expected lost per year

Effective property tax0.76%

$2,591 median annual bill

02
DemandIRS SOI household flows
Net migration-43

1,546 in · 1,589 out

Arriving vs leaving income−$1,798

$60,080 arriving · $61,878 leaving

03
CompetitionHMDA financed purchases
Purchases by investors15.5%

49 of 316 mortgages

investorother financed
Same metro

The other counties in Winchester, VA

A metro is an average of these. Which side of a county line a property sits on can change the tax bill, the hazard profile and the tenant pool.

CountyPopulationPriceRentYieldHazard
Winchester city27,913$363k$1,6425.4%inland flooding
Frederick County95,008$434k$2,2566.2%inland flooding
Hampshire County23,465$264kn/an/ainland flooding
Bear case

What can break the county thesis

  1. Parcel-specific inland-flood exposure or insurance costs could outweigh the stated gross yield.
  2. Negative net migration and lower average income among arriving movers could weaken the local demand premise.
  3. Missing listing-market, expense, vacancy, and property-condition data could materially change net-cash-flow and exit underwriting.
Underwriting questions

Before pricing a property

Is a gross yield supplied from published market rent?

Yes. The record reports published median asking market rent and a pre-cost gross yield; HUD FMR is not used as market rent.

What does the employment series represent?

QCEW is annual covered employment at workplaces located in the county, not resident employment, unemployment, or a forecast.

Is listing-market liquidity documented?

No. Realtor.com listing price, inventory, marketing-time, reduction, and pending-ratio figures are not published, so visible supply and seller-concession conditions cannot be assessed.