Henrico County, VA

Henrico’s decision tension is a positive rental screen with limited proof of net resilience. In Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, the $405,789 median home value sits against $1,840 monthly median asking rent and a reported 5.44% gross yield before costs. Value gained 1.42% year over year while asking rent gained 3.10%. This merits investigation by operators able to verify property expenses and rent comparables; buyers relying on the gross screen as cash flow should be cautious.

Measured asking rent must remain separate from HUD’s two-bedroom FMR: the FMR is below the published market rent, but it is a payment standard rather than evidence of achievable asking rent. The effective property-tax rate is 0.71%, a carrying-cost input rather than a complete expense load. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 4.94%; its positive direction aligns with Zillow’s, but it is an appreciation index, not a home value, and its annual vintage and method cannot be blended with Zillow’s 2026-06 value change.

Realtor.com’s MLS evidence requires a mixed reading. Active listings rose 10.37%, marketing time shortened year over year, and 13.2% of listings had price reductions. These are visible asking-market supply, marketing-time, and concession signals—not closed-sale pricing or independent proof of demand. QCEW’s 2025 county workplace data show covered employment up 2.96%, with average weekly covered-worker wages also increasing; Professional and business services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the entire economy. Tax-return migration was net positive by 163 households, yet incoming movers’ average AGI was lower than outgoing movers’ average AGI. Non-occupant investors accounted for 368 of 4,030 purchases, a calculated 9.13%, making them a minority but relevant buyer segment.

Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.08%; this is a county-level model, not a parcel loss estimate or insurance quote. The record does not publish flood-zone exposure, elevation, insurance terms, claims, vacancy, operating expenses, debt terms, or property-level rent and sale comparables. Those gaps prevent a net-yield or cash-flow conclusion, a flood-cost assessment, and confirmation that a specific acquisition can achieve the county asking-rent screen. Next checks are parcel flood diligence, insurer quotes, lease comparables, and closed-sale comparables.