Arlington County’s tension is a high acquisition basis against a modest reported gross return: the Zillow county 2026-06 median home value is $823,567 and median asking market rent is $2,722 per month, for a reported 3.97% gross yield before operating costs. That makes this a diligence case for investors able to test expenses and unit-level rent, while buyers relying on yield margin should be cautious; the county record alone does not establish net cash flow or a workable purchase basis.
Price direction is not clean across measures. Zillow’s 2026-06 home-value reading was down 0.43% year over year, whereas FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 1.44% and showed a 24.11% cumulative five-year gain. These different vintages and methods cannot be averaged. The 0.91% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent; measured market rent is 121.2% of it, so FMR cannot replace the market-rent input.
Demand evidence is mixed rather than decisively strong. In QCEW annual county-workplace data, covered employment grew 0.84% and average weekly covered-worker pay grew 6.60%; professional and business services accounted for 44.18% of total private covered employment. These are workplace, not resident, measures and do not describe the whole economy. Tax-return movers produced net in-migration of 395 households, but incoming movers’ average income was $29,782 below outgoing movers’. Investors accounted for 7.67% of 1,813 purchase mortgages: participation is measurable, but the record does not identify their properties, prices, or hold strategies.
Risk screening puts inland flood first: modeled annual climate loss equals 0.08% of building value, which calls for parcel flood-zone, elevation, insurance, and deductible review rather than a county-wide loss estimate. Realtor.com listing price, active listings, days on market, and price-reduced share are not published, preventing an MLS-based read on visible supply, marketing time, or seller concessions. Closed-sale comparables, property condition, insurance quotes, and operating expenses are also absent; without them, acquisition basis, net yield, and flood-cost exposure cannot be underwritten from this record.