ZIP 22202 enters this review with a cross-market tension rather than a uniform signal. At the supplied Zillow endpoint, Zillow ZORI is $2,717 per month, down 1.91% from the same month a year earlier. This is a ZIP-level typical observed asking-rent index blended across rental types, so it is a current asking-rent benchmark rather than a lease-by-lease measure. The decline matters because the longer rent record remains positive, while the direct ZIP resale evidence records a sharply different recent price movement. One current rent figure therefore cannot support a complete valuation, demand, or unit-level conclusion.
Backward-looking Zillow history shows the recent decline breaking from the longer path: the exact same-month change is negative over one year, while the three-year and five-year annualized changes are 2.46% and 4.64%, respectively. Monthly rent changes annualize to 3.83% variability, which reduces confidence that a single current reading fully represents the ZIP’s rent path. The historical peak-to-trough drawdown reached 13.64%, a separate sign that prior soft periods have been meaningful. Coverage is 100%. Transparent national discovery ranks are 2,264 for momentum, 2,501 for stability, and 2,687 for the balanced measure, with lower ranks stronger; these are discovery measurements, not forecasts or investment recommendations.
ZIP 22202 is both a Zillow ZIP market identifier and a Census ZCTA match. A ZCTA is a statistical area and is not identical to a USPS delivery ZIP. The ACS 2024 five-year survey reports a $2,484 median gross rent among occupied renter homes; it includes selected utilities and is not the same universe as Zillow asking rent. Zillow’s current index is 9.38% above that ACS figure. For wider context only, the Arlington city scope has a $2,722.44 rent figure, the Arlington County scope has $2,722, and the Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV metro scope has $2,448; none is a substitute for the ZIP observation.
The local HUD FMR/SAFMR ladder supplies the bedroom scaling, but HUD is an administrative, bedroom-specific standard rather than asking rent. Applying that ladder to ZIP ZORI produces modelled ZIP estimates, never measured bedroom rents: $2,362 for a studio, $2,435 for one bedroom, $2,717 for two bedrooms, $3,426 for three bedrooms, and $4,031 for four bedrooms. These estimates preserve the local HUD bedroom relationship while anchoring the overall level to Zillow’s blended rent index. They should not be used as evidence that any available unit, lease, building, or submarket actually commands the stated bedroom amount.
The 30% required-income screen converts the Zillow index into $108,680 of annual income. That is arithmetic, not advice and not an applicant qualification rule. The matched ZCTA’s median household income is $133,762, making the annualized Zillow index equal to 24.37% of that median income, but household medians cannot establish a particular renter’s budget. ACS also reports 4,948 renter households paying at least 30% of income toward rent out of 12,740 renter households, or 38.84%. That burden measure describes surveyed occupied renter homes, not the affordability, payment history, or lease terms of a specific vacant unit.
The matched ZCTA contains 18,436 housing units, including 2,316 vacant units, for a 12.56% vacancy rate. Renters occupy a 79.03% share of occupied homes, and the structure mix is concentrated in large multifamily buildings, with 15,206 such units. This stock composition helps frame why a blended rent index can span materially different rental products. Vacancy is an area-level count and rate, however, not proof that a particular unit is rentable, physically available, competitively priced, or comparable with the Zillow index. It also does not distinguish unit condition, concession use, or lease duration.
The supplied direct ZIP resale observation belongs entirely to the for-sale market, not rental transactions. Its median sold price is $1,049,763, up 34.24% year over year; 40 homes sold with a median 41 days on market, inventory of 67 homes, and five months of supply. The average sale-to-list ratio was 99.05%, while 30.8% of sales closed above list price. Those signals are not uniformly directional: the strong sale-price change challenges a simple reading of the recent asking-rent decline and income screen, while supply and sale-to-list data add separate resale-market context. Annualized ZIP ZORI divided by median sold price equals 3.11%, a cross-source screening ratio only, not a measure of property economics or return.
Decision use depends on retaining these boundaries. Zillow measures blended observed asking rents; ACS measures surveyed occupied renter homes and selected utilities; HUD supplies an administrative bedroom ladder; and Redfin records rolling ZIP resale conditions. None supplies unit-specific rent, operating costs, concessions, tenant income, financing terms, or building condition. Concrete property-level checks should therefore verify the unit’s actual bedroom count, advertised rent, included utilities, lease term, availability, concessions, and recent listing or sale status. They should also confirm whether the address aligns with the relevant ZIP and whether its physical characteristics make the broad index and modelled bedroom estimate reasonably comparable.