Counties / Virginia / Lancaster County

Lancaster County, VA

FIPS 51103 · population 10,936 · outside every metro area

$404k
Zillow home value · 2026-06
The numbers

What this county costs and earns

Everything here joins on the county FIPS code, so each figure comes from the agency that publishes it with no name matching in between.

Zillow home value
$404k
▲ 5.2% year over year
Zillow ZHVI · direct
ACS median gross rent
$1,033
occupied-unit survey; not current asking rent
Census ACS · surveyed
Gross yield
n/a
gross yield cannot be computed without measured market rent
requires both measured price and measured rent
HUD 2-bed standard
$1,052
the Section 8 payment standard
HUD Fair Market Rent · direct
Independent price check

Do two methods point the same way?

Zillow estimates a current home value. FHFA tracks repeat mortgage transactions. Their growth rates should be read side by side, not averaged.

Both annual signals move in the same direction
FHFA five-year cumulative+54.0%not annualized · through 2025
0%ZILLOW ZHVI2026-06+5.2%FHFA HPI2025+3.0%
Annual changes use different methods and may use different periods. The comparison checks direction and magnitude; it does not create a blended estimate. Zillow county ZHVI pulled 2026-07-26; FHFA annual county HPI pulled 2026-07-28.
Owner-reported value$327k
Surveyed gross rent$1,033
Rent burden 30%+37.8%
Median year built1982
Housing composition

Who occupies the stock—and what it is

ACS 2024 5-year
23.9%vacant
7,496estimated housing units
Occupied tenure18.5% renter
owner 81.5%renter 18.5%
Structure mix86.9% single-family
Single-family 86.9%20+ units 1.2%Mobile home 4.1%Other 7.8%
ACS estimates describe the standing housing stock and occupied tenure. They do not measure current listings, transaction prices or asking rents.

Survey source: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30. These values describe different housing universes and are not combined into gross yield.

Annual average covered jobs4,730▼ 1.3% from the prior annual release
Covered establishments556annual average reporting locations
Average weekly wage$1,030▲ 3.9% from the prior annual release
Largest private supersectorEducation and health services25.9% of disclosed private covered jobs
Local labor base

Jobs, pay and private-sector concentration

2025
0%COVERED JOBS−1.3%WEEKLY WAGE+3.9%Education and health services25.9%
Annual QCEW counts cover jobs located at reporting establishments. The industry share uses disclosed private covered employment; it is not a resident-employment measure or a forecast.

Workplace source: BLS QCEW — county employment and wages · annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 · pulled 2026-07-31. QCEW counts covered jobs located in the county, not employed residents or the metro score’s CES/LAUS series.

County brief

What the local evidence says

01Decision frame

Lancaster County has a valuation-versus-liquidity tension: Zillow’s median home value was $403,988 at its 2026-06 county observation, up 5.16% year over year, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 2.99% in 2025. Both measures have a positive direction, but their methods and vintages differ and they cannot be blended. This county merits investigation by buyers able to underwrite slower exits and caution by those dependent on quick resale or unverified rent coverage.

02Housing economics

No county market asking rent is published; therefore gross yield cannot be calculated. HUD’s $1,052 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. The 0.48% effective property-tax rate and $1,558 median annual tax identify a carrying-cost line item, but they do not establish insurance, maintenance, vacancy, or total operating costs. Price-to-rent affordability and cash-flow coverage remain untested.

03Demand & competition

Realtor.com’s MLS listing market shows 119 active listings, up 55.56%, with a 74-day median marketing period and 18.37% of listings reduced. That combination is visible supply and seller-concession evidence, not closed-sale pricing or buyer demand proof; it argues for checking contract and sale comps before setting an exit value. Tax-return migration was net positive, and in-movers’ average income exceeded out-movers’ by $69,945. Investor-financed purchase mortgages were 6.38% of purchases, so investor participation appears limited rather than a basis to presume investor-led liquidity.

04Risk & next checks

Hurricane is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss is 0.15%; property-level wind, flood, elevation, deductible, and insurance evidence could materially change the carrying-cost case. QCEW annual data describe covered jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment or an outlook: employment fell while average covered-worker wages rose, and Education and health services was the largest disclosed private supersector. Missing closed-sale comps, market rent, property insurance terms, flood exposure, vacancy, repair costs, and financing prevents a supported cash-flow, resale, or hazard-adjusted underwriting conclusion.

Cities & communities

Where people live within Lancaster County

Census-recognized incorporated places and CDPs that intersect this county. The list does not pretend to include every neighborhood or informal community.

Population scale

Largest Census places

ACS 2024 5-year
Kilmarnock town*1.3KIrvington town513White Stone town449Weems CDP279Lancaster CDP20
Bars use total place population, not a county-share estimate. An asterisk marks a place that crosses a county line.
Official directory

5 Census places

Population
  1. 01
    Kilmarnock townIncorporated place · spans 2 counties
    1,333
  2. 02
    Irvington townIncorporated place
    513
  3. 03
    White Stone townIncorporated place
    449
  4. 04
    Weems CDPCensus-designated place
    279
  5. 05
    Lancaster CDPCensus-designated place
    20

Population is the total place-wide ACS estimate, not an allocated county share. A place crossing a county line is labelled explicitly. Source: Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30.

Risk, demand and competition

The three things a price does not tell you

01
Risk & carrying costFEMA NRI + Census ACS
Dominant hazardhurricane

0.152% of building value expected lost per year

Effective property tax0.48%

$1,558 median annual bill

02
DemandIRS SOI household flows
Net migration+99

373 in · 274 out

Arriving vs leaving income+$69,945

$132,912 arriving · $62,967 leaving

03
CompetitionHMDA financed purchases
Purchases by investors6.4%

12 of 188 mortgages

investorother financed
Current listing pressure

What sellers and visible supply are doing

Realtor.com® Economic Research · county inventory 2026-06 · pulled 2026-07-28
Active listings119▲ 55.6% year over year
Median days on market74▲ 17.0% year over year
Listings price-reduced18.4%seller-concession signal
Median listing pricen/a▲ 19.0% year over year

Listing price is an asking price, not a closed sale. Quality-flagged county rows are withheld instead of displayed.

No rent index is published for this county.Zillow’s county rent series does not cover every county, and estimating one from a neighbouring county would be a guess wearing a number’s clothes. Everything above is measured here; no wider market is mapped for it either.
Bear case

What can break the county thesis

  1. County market rent is not published, so actual income may not support price and carrying costs.
  2. Hurricane exposure and property-specific insurance or flood terms may change the operating case.
  3. MLS listings are asking-market evidence; absent closed-sale comparables may invalidate the proposed exit value.
Underwriting questions

Before pricing a property

Can gross yield be calculated from this record?

No. County market asking rent is not published, and HUD Fair Market Rent is a payment standard rather than market rent.

What do the available price measures show?

Both Zillow’s county value measure and FHFA’s repeat-transaction index increased at their distinct reported vintages, with Zillow’s reported annual change larger; they cannot be combined.

Is observed investor buying dominant?

No. The record shows investor-financed purchase mortgages were a minority of purchase mortgages.