Counties / New Mexico / Lincoln County

Lincoln County, NM

FIPS 35027 · population 20,224 · outside every metro area

$333k
Zillow home value · 2026-06
The numbers

What this county costs and earns

Everything here joins on the county FIPS code, so each figure comes from the agency that publishes it with no name matching in between.

Zillow home value
$333k
▼ 1.6% year over year
Zillow ZHVI · direct
Median asking rent
$1,883
n/a year over year
Zillow ZORI · direct
Gross yield
6.8%
annual rent ÷ price, before costs
derived: rent × 12 ÷ price ✓
HUD 2-bed standard
$999
market rent is 1.89x the standard
HUD Fair Market Rent · direct
Independent price check

Do two methods point the same way?

Zillow estimates a current home value. FHFA tracks repeat mortgage transactions. Their growth rates should be read side by side, not averaged.

Both annual signals move in the same direction
FHFA five-year cumulative+53.3%not annualized · through 2025
0%ZILLOW ZHVI2026-06−1.6%FHFA HPI2025−1.5%
Annual changes use different methods and may use different periods. The comparison checks direction and magnitude; it does not create a blended estimate. Zillow county ZHVI pulled 2026-07-26; FHFA annual county HPI pulled 2026-07-28.
Owner-reported value$233k
Surveyed gross rent$956
Rent burden 30%+51.7%
Median year built1985
Housing composition

Who occupies the stock—and what it is

ACS 2024 5-year
44.0%vacant
17,871estimated housing units
Occupied tenure23.2% renter
owner 76.8%renter 23.2%
Structure mix66.8% single-family
Single-family 66.8%20+ units 2.0%Mobile home 24.3%Other 6.8%
ACS estimates describe the standing housing stock and occupied tenure. They do not measure current listings, transaction prices or asking rents.

Survey source: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30. These values describe different housing universes and are not combined into gross yield.

Annual average covered jobs6,692▼ 1.3% from the prior annual release
Covered establishments894annual average reporting locations
Average weekly wage$883▲ 6.3% from the prior annual release
Largest private supersectorLeisure and hospitality31.8% of disclosed private covered jobs
Local labor base

Jobs, pay and private-sector concentration

2025
0%COVERED JOBS−1.3%WEEKLY WAGE+6.3%Leisure and hospitality31.8%
Annual QCEW counts cover jobs located at reporting establishments. The industry share uses disclosed private covered employment; it is not a resident-employment measure or a forecast.

Workplace source: BLS QCEW — county employment and wages · annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 · pulled 2026-07-31. QCEW counts covered jobs located in the county, not employed residents or the metro score’s CES/LAUS series.

County brief

What the local evidence says

01Decision frame

Lincoln County presents an income-versus-liquidity tension: its published median asking rent is $1,883 per month and supplied gross yield is 6.79%, while Zillow's county median home value was $332,855, down 1.56% from its labeled prior-year observation. Income-focused buyers should test rents and operating costs; short-horizon resale buyers should be cautious. The HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard rather than market rent, so it cannot replace the measured asking-rent input or be used to recalculate yield.

02Housing economics

Housing economics need a vintage-aware read. The FHFA annual repeat-transaction HPI declined 1.47% year over year; that direction is consistent with Zillow's decline, but it is an index rather than a home value and not the same observation period or method. Against the stated gross yield, the 0.53% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input, not a net-return conclusion. Assessed value, insurance, maintenance, vacancy and financing are not published.

03Demand & competition

Listing-market and demand evidence favor caution without establishing closed-sale pricing. In Realtor.com's MLS data, active listings increased 20.20%, median marketing time was 88 days, and 21.98% of listings had a price reduction; listings show visible supply, while the other measures show marketing time and seller concessions, not buyer demand alone. Net migration was negative 40 households, while movers-in had average AGI $11,734 above movers-out; higher incoming income does not erase net outmigration. Investors accounted for 47 of 300 purchase mortgages, or 15.67%, so non-owner competition is present but not the whole purchaser base. QCEW annual covered worksite employment fell 1.33%; leisure and hospitality is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.

04Risk & next checks

Wildfire is the dominant hazard, with a modeled annual climate-loss ratio of 0.42% of building value; this is modeled loss, not a property-specific insurance bill. The record lacks insurance availability and premiums, parcel-level hazard and mitigation conditions, vacancy and operating-cost history, and closed-sale detail. These gaps prevent net-income, property-specific hazard-cost and exit-liquidity conclusions; verify rent comparables.

Cities & communities

Where people live within Lincoln County

Census-recognized incorporated places and CDPs that intersect this county. The list does not pretend to include every neighborhood or informal community.

Population scale

Largest Census places

ACS 2024 5-year
Ruidoso village7.7KRuidoso Downs city2.7KCapitan village1.2KCarrizozo town854Corona village168Nogal CDP80
Bars use total place population, not a county-share estimate. An asterisk marks a place that crosses a county line.
Official directory

6 Census places

Population
  1. 01
    Ruidoso villageIncorporated place
    7,699
  2. 02
    Ruidoso Downs cityIncorporated place
    2,655
  3. 03
    Capitan villageIncorporated place
    1,191
  4. 04
    Carrizozo townIncorporated place
    854
  5. 05
    Corona villageIncorporated place
    168
  6. 06
    Nogal CDPCensus-designated place
    80

Population is the total place-wide ACS estimate, not an allocated county share. A place crossing a county line is labelled explicitly. Source: Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30.

Risk, demand and competition

The three things a price does not tell you

01
Risk & carrying costFEMA NRI + Census ACS
Dominant hazardwildfire

0.424% of building value expected lost per year

Effective property tax0.53%

$1,246 median annual bill

02
DemandIRS SOI household flows
Net migration-40

608 in · 648 out

Arriving vs leaving income+$11,734

$72,628 arriving · $60,894 leaving

03
CompetitionHMDA financed purchases
Purchases by investors15.7%

47 of 300 mortgages

investorother financed
Current listing pressure

What sellers and visible supply are doing

Realtor.com® Economic Research · county inventory 2026-06 · pulled 2026-07-28
Active listings595▲ 20.2% year over year
Median days on market88▲ 6.1% year over year
Listings price-reduced22.0%seller-concession signal
Median listing pricen/a▼ 1.8% year over year

Listing price is an asking price, not a closed sale. Quality-flagged county rows are withheld instead of displayed.

Bear case

What can break the county thesis

  1. Published asking rent may not be attainable at the subject property after vacancy and concessions.
  2. Wildfire insurance availability or premiums may materially change carrying costs.
  3. Listing-market softness may not translate into a reliable sale price or timely exit.
Underwriting questions

Before pricing a property

Is the reported rent a HUD payment standard?

No. The record identifies the reported rent as median asking market rent and HUD FMR as a separate payment standard.

Do the Realtor.com figures establish a closed-sale price?

No. They are MLS listing-market measures of asking conditions, visible supply, marketing time and price reductions.

Does QCEW employment describe resident labor conditions?

No. It measures annual covered employment at workplaces located in the county, not resident employment or unemployment.