McCormick County presents a price-versus-income-and-risk underwriting tension. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $325,203, up 6.17% year over year, while the annual QCEW average recorded 2,029 covered jobs at county workplaces, down 1.70%. Investigate only properties with verified tenant income and insurability; be cautious where projected rent carries the case, because county market rent is not published.
Price evidence does not resolve cash flow. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 67.83% cumulatively over five years; it is an appreciation index, not a home value, and its vintage and method cannot be combined with Zillow’s change. HUD’s $956 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard rather than asking rent, so gross yield cannot be computed. The effective property-tax rate is 0.56%, with a $948 median annual tax; these are county measures, not a parcel tax estimate.
Demand indicators are mixed and narrow. Tax-return migration was net positive, and incoming movers’ average AGI exceeded outgoing movers’ by $21,816, an income signal that does not establish tenant demand. Investors accounted for 2 of 137 purchases, or 1.46%, indicating limited recorded non-owner participation rather than evidence on all-cash competition. No Realtor.com median MLS listing price, active-listing count, days on market, or price-reduced share is supplied, leaving visible listing supply, seller concessions, and marketing time untested.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.14% of building value; this is modeled expected loss, not an insurance quote or parcel flood determination. Missing market rent, operating costs, insurance and flood-zone status, vacancy, and property condition prevent a defensible cash-flow, debt-service, or parcel-level resilience conclusion. Next checks are current market rents, flood insurance and elevation data, tax bill and assessment treatment, and MLS sale and listing histories.