Meagher County’s tension is a falling Zillow value measure beside limited favorable household movement in a very small market. Median home value was $322,776, down 2.55% year over year in Zillow’s county observation. Cash-flow and resale-liquidity underwriters should be cautious: no closed-sale or listing-market evidence shows whether this reflects negotiation, supply, or a few transactions. No FHFA annual repeat-transaction HPI is supplied to confirm or challenge Zillow’s direction.
Housing economics remain untestable on income return. Median asking market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD FMR of $1,393 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate. The effective property-tax rate is 0.66%, and median annual tax is $1,725; neither establishes the bill for a home at the Zillow median. QCEW counted 704 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces, down 1.12%, while covered-worker average weekly wage rose 7.17% to $882. This is not resident employment or unemployment.
Leisure and hospitality, the largest disclosed private supersector, represented 31.22% of private covered jobs, concentrating exposure in one disclosed employment base. Net migration was five tax-return households, with inbound movers’ average income $27,961 above outbound movers’; this is positive but thin demand evidence. The non-occupant investor share was 8.33% across 12 recorded purchases, showing little measured participation but too small a denominator to characterize buyer competition. Realtor.com MLS listing price, active listings, days on market and price-reduction data are not published; visible supply, marketing time and seller concessions cannot be assessed.
The dominant hazard is inland flood, and modeled expected annual climate loss equals 0.16% of building value. This county-level model is not a parcel flood determination; verify location, elevation, insurance availability and terms. Next checks are property-level market rent and operating costs, tax assessment, flood exposure and insurance, plus MLS and closed-sale comparables. These gaps prevent a yield calculation and defensible resale-liquidity view. This remains a screening view, not a complete underwriting case.