Montague County presents a valuation-conflict case: cautious underwriters should investigate at property level rather than draw a countywide price conclusion. Zillow’s county median home value is $256,517 in 2026-06, down 2.75% year over year, whereas the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI rose 5.49% in 2025. FHFA is an appreciation index, not a home value, and these differently dated, methodologically distinct measures cannot be averaged. The tension warrants comparable-sale diligence rather than a declared price trend.
Housing economics remain unpriced on an income basis: market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,055 per month is a payment standard, not market rent, and cannot fill that gap. An effective property-tax rate of 0.92% and median annual tax of $1,902 identify county-level carrying-cost inputs, but assessments, exemptions, insurance, and property-specific taxes are not published. Underwriting therefore cannot test rent coverage or all-in operating costs.
Demand evidence is mixed rather than a simple shortage story. Net migration was 137 tax-return households, and inbound movers had higher average income than outbound movers, but 2025 annual QCEW covered employment at county workplaces fell 2.13%; it is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Realtor.com’s MLS market showed 78 median days on market and listings with price reductions, evidence of marketing time and seller concessions rather than closed-sale pricing or buyer demand alone. The reported investor share was 6.37% against 251 total purchases, recording non-occupant purchase-mortgage participation rather than all cash competition.
Risk limits are material. The modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.13% of building value and the dominant hazard is inland flood, but this county-level model is not a flood-zone, elevation, deductible, or insurance quote. The record lacks market rent, closed-sale comparables, vacancy, property condition, and parcel-level flood and insurance evidence; their absence prevents yield, exit-value, and resilience underwriting. Next checks are actual lease terms and asking rents, parcel tax and insurance records, flood documentation, and neighborhood sale and listing histories.