Morgan County is a diligence case, not a yield-led screen: investors able to verify lease economics and flood exposure may investigate, while buyers relying on published rent or broad employment momentum should be cautious. Zillow’s county median home value was $304,819 in 2026-06, up 2.44% year over year. FHFA’s separate 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 8.12%; it corroborates positive price direction but is neither a home value nor the same vintage or method as Zillow’s measure.
No county market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $888 monthly two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not a proxy for asking rent or income. The supplied effective property-tax rate is 0.56%; it needs parcel-level verification against assessments and actual bills rather than being applied mechanically to the Zillow median. Thus price appreciation evidence does not establish cash flow after taxes, insurance, maintenance, vacancy, or debt service.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS market shows 164 active listings, 55 median days on market, 19.69% price reduced, and a 32.11% pending-to-active ratio. Those are visible supply, marketing-time, and seller-concession measures—not sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Annual QCEW covered employment at county workplaces fell 3.09%; the $788 average weekly wage is a covered-worker average, not resident employment or unemployment. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return migration had a net gain of 118 and inbound mover income exceeded outbound by $8,118, a limited household-flow signal. Investors made 40 of 273 purchases, or 14.65%, a measurable buyer segment.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss is 0.21% of building value; it is a county model, not a parcel loss estimate. The thesis can fail if actual rents do not support acquisition and carrying costs, county workplace employment evidence proves inconsistent with needed housing demand, or a property’s flood exposure, insurance, condition, or tax bill differs from county evidence. Next checks are market lease comps, parcel tax bill, flood zone and elevation, insurance quote, and transaction-level sales. Missing evidence prevents cash-flow, site-risk, and exit-price underwriting.