Nelson County’s decision tension is a Zillow county median home value of $156,048 in 2026-06, up 6.96% year over year, beside a small 2025 workplace base: QCEW reports 1,019 annual-average covered jobs, down 2.02%. Zillow is a home-value measure, not closed-sale evidence; QCEW counts covered jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment. Rent-dependent buyers and owners concerned about exit depth should investigate leases, sale comparables, and insurance before treating the value gain as durable.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $873 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot substitute for market rent. The effective property-tax rate is 0.75%, with median annual tax of $1,044. Without market rent, parcel assessments, and insurance, price and carrying costs cannot be reconciled into cash flow.
Tax-return migration is a mixed demand signal: 38 households moved in and 52 moved out, a net migration loss of 14. Entrants reported average AGI of $61,974 versus $55,154 for leavers; this concerns moving tax-return households, not the buyer pool. Non-occupants accounted for 2 of 15 purchase mortgages, or 13.33%. This measures non-occupant mortgage participation, not all investor acquisitions or proof of bidding pressure. Education and health services was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.
Hail is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.14%; it is a modeled ratio, not an insurance quote or dollar loss. FHFA annual HPI is not published, preventing a repeat-transaction check on Zillow’s direction. Realtor.com active listings, MLS listing price, days on market, and price-reduced share are not published. Visible supply, seller concessions, and marketing time therefore cannot be assessed. Obtain lease rolls, insurance terms, parcel taxes, recent closed sales, and complete MLS measures.