North Dakota rental market data

The median home-value increase across eight measured metros was 5.6%, versus 4.1% for asking rents. The supplied difference shows rent growth trailing value growth by 1.5 percentage points. For screening, that means recent statewide metro momentum does not support assuming rents will rise as quickly as acquisition values.

The aggregate pattern has meaningful local exceptions. Grand Forks rents increased 7.9% while values rose 7.3%, a calculated rent advantage of 0.6 percentage points. In Minot, rents rose 6.5% against 3.7% value growth, a calculated 2.8-point advantage. These reversals make metro-level rent verification more useful than applying the median relationship to every deal.

Job growth across eight measured metros had a 0.3% median, with the 10th-to-90th-percentile range running from a 1.1% decline to a 1.5% increase. Dickinson recorded 1.6% growth, Jamestown 1.5% and Bismarck 0.3%, providing a positive but uneven employment signal.

Household movement does not reinforce that signal. Across 47 counties with migration data, net migration totaled 100 people, or 0.1 per 1,000 residents. Aggregate outbound mover income exceeded inbound mover income by $331,603. The combination supports checking local employers and tenant sources, but it cannot establish household formation, renter demand or the direction of a particular submarket because the employment and migration measures cover different periods and geographies.

Across eight measured metros, the median permit count was 112, or 2.2 permitted units per 1,000 residents. Fargo recorded 1,118 permits and 4.3 per 1,000, Grand Forks had 314 and 3.0 per 1,000, and Bismarck had 366 and 2.7 per 1,000. Permits identify authorized units, not completed housing or rental tenure, so they do not by themselves establish future rental competition.

Resale data for six measured metros show a median of 37.5 days on market, 2.8 months of supply and price reductions on 24.0% of listings. Wahpeton was materially slower at 79 days and 4.8 months of supply, with a 96.6% sale-to-list ratio. Dickinson took 71 days with 3.4 months of supply. Bismarck is a counterpoint at 30 days and 2.4 months, although 26.1% of listings had price cuts. Exit assumptions therefore need to reflect the specific metro rather than the permit totals alone.

Simple gross yields across eight measured metros had a 4.8% median and a relatively narrow 4.2% to 5.2% 10th-to-90th-percentile range. Jamestown stood at 5.8%, Minot at 5.0% and Wahpeton at 4.9%. These are gross rent-to-value measures, not returns after vacancy, maintenance, capital work, taxes, insurance, financing or management.

Tenant-income measures vary more meaningfully. The metro median rent-to-income ratio was 17.9%, with a 16.9% to 20.3% central range. Jamestown's measure was 21.7%, compared with 17.6% in Minot and 15.4% in Wahpeton. Measured market rent was 105.7% of the two-bedroom HUD Fair Market Rent at the metro median and 131.1% at the 90th percentile. Because the market-rent series is not a property-specific two-bedroom quote, that comparison is a screening flag rather than proof of attainable rent or subsidy compatibility.

Across all 53 counties, the median ACS total vacancy rate was 20.2%, reaching 28.1% at the 90th percentile. The median renter share was 23.9%, while 79.1% of housing was single-family and the median year built was 1971. Total vacancy includes units that may not be available, suitable or priced for long-term renters, so it cannot be read as rental availability.

Renter burden was 35.0% at the county median and 51.2% at the 90th percentile. Grant County, with 2,269 residents, combined 35.2% vacancy with 62.0% of renters spending at least 30% of income on rent. Emmons County recorded 25.5% vacancy and 57.2% renter burden; Mercer County recorded 23.0% and 55.4%. The coexistence of vacancy and burden makes unit condition, tenure and attainable local rent essential screening questions, especially because these are five-year county estimates rather than current property observations.

FEMA assigns inland flood as the mutually exclusive leading-hazard label in 47 counties, hail in three, strong wind in two and wildfire in one. These counts do not overlap. They describe each county's leading label, not whether a parcel is exposed, damaged or insurable at a particular price. County climate loss ratios ranged from 0.07% at the 10th percentile to 0.18% at the 90th percentile; Oliver County's ratio was 0.31%.

Across 53 counties, the median effective property-tax rate was 0.92%, with a 0.54% to 1.12% 10th-to-90th-percentile range. Median tax bills over the same distribution ranged from $857 to $2,387. Cavalier County had a 1.34% rate, Cass County 1.20% and Foster County 1.19%. These county measures can flag operating-cost differences, but they do not replace a parcel's assessed value, exemptions, actual tax bill or insurance quote.