Counties / North Dakota / McKenzie County

McKenzie County, ND

FIPS 38053 · population 14,321 · outside every metro area

$377k
Zillow home value · 2026-06
The numbers

What this county costs and earns

Everything here joins on the county FIPS code, so each figure comes from the agency that publishes it with no name matching in between.

Zillow home value
$377k
▲ 6.9% year over year
Zillow ZHVI · direct
Median asking rent
$1,322
n/a year over year
Zillow ZORI · direct
Gross yield
4.2%
annual rent ÷ price, before costs
derived: rent × 12 ÷ price ✓
HUD 2-bed standard
$1,354
market rent is 0.98x the standard
HUD Fair Market Rent · direct
Independent price check

Do two methods point the same way?

Zillow estimates a current home value. FHFA tracks repeat mortgage transactions. Their growth rates should be read side by side, not averaged.

Both annual signals move in the same direction
FHFA five-year cumulative+48.0%not annualized · through 2025
0%ZILLOW ZHVI2026-06+6.9%FHFA HPI2025+17.3%
Annual changes use different methods and may use different periods. The comparison checks direction and magnitude; it does not create a blended estimate. Zillow county ZHVI pulled 2026-07-26; FHFA annual county HPI pulled 2026-07-28.
Owner-reported value$350k
Surveyed gross rent$1,284
Rent burden 30%+22.2%
Median year built2011
Housing composition

Who occupies the stock—and what it is

ACS 2024 5-year
22.6%vacant
7,752estimated housing units
Occupied tenure46.6% renter
owner 53.4%renter 46.6%
Structure mix51.1% single-family
Single-family 51.1%20+ units 21.5%Mobile home 18.8%Other 8.6%
ACS estimates describe the standing housing stock and occupied tenure. They do not measure current listings, transaction prices or asking rents.

Survey source: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30. These values describe different housing universes and are not combined into gross yield.

Annual average covered jobs11,760▲ 2.4% from the prior annual release
Covered establishments838annual average reporting locations
Average weekly wage$1,771▲ 1.2% from the prior annual release
Largest private supersectorTrade, transportation, and utilities30.8% of disclosed private covered jobs
Local labor base

Jobs, pay and private-sector concentration

2025
0%COVERED JOBS+2.4%WEEKLY WAGE+1.2%Trade, transportation, and utilities30.8%
Annual QCEW counts cover jobs located at reporting establishments. The industry share uses disclosed private covered employment; it is not a resident-employment measure or a forecast.

Workplace source: BLS QCEW — county employment and wages · annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 · pulled 2026-07-31. QCEW counts covered jobs located in the county, not employed residents or the metro score’s CES/LAUS series.

County brief

What the local evidence says

01Decision frame

McKenzie County has a price-momentum versus income-underwriting tension: buyers seeking recent appreciation should investigate individual assets, while income-focused buyers should be cautious pending expense and rent-durability work. In Zillow’s 2026-06 county observation, median home value was $376,544, up 6.91% year over year; median asking rent was $1,322 per month and supplied gross yield was 4.21% before costs. This is measured market asking rent. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,354 is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent or a basis for yield.

02Housing economics

At that gross yield, carrying costs determine whether the price-rent relationship works. The effective property-tax rate is 0.43%, but property-specific assessments, insurance, repairs, vacancy, financing and operating costs are not published; consequently, net yield and cash flow cannot be determined. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 17.3% annually. It supports an upward-price direction, but it is an index rather than a home value and cannot be averaged with Zillow’s differently timed, differently measured county value change. There is no closed-sale comp set supplied to resolve the gap.

03Demand & competition

Realtor.com’s supplied MLS snapshot presents supply and concession evidence, not sales proof: active listings were 54.29% higher than a year earlier, and 9.19% carried price reductions. Tax-return movers produced a net inflow of 104 households, but incoming households’ average income was $16,427 below that of outbound movers, tempering a simple demand reading. Investor mortgages accounted for 7 of 131 purchases, a limited observed non-owner purchase channel rather than a measure of investor ownership. QCEW measures covered jobs at county workplaces; its employment and wage series are not resident employment, unemployment, or forecasts.

04Risk & next checks

Inland flood is the stated dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss is 0.10% of building value; that ratio does not establish parcel exposure, deductible, insurability, or actual loss. The largest disclosed private supersector is trade, transportation, and utilities, not the entire county economy. Next checks: parcel flood and insurance records, leases and vacancy history, operating statements, tax bills, and closed-sale comparables. Without them, net income, replacement-cost risk, and executable purchase pricing cannot be tested.

Cities & communities

Where people live within McKenzie County

Census-recognized incorporated places and CDPs that intersect this county. The list does not pretend to include every neighborhood or informal community.

Population scale

Largest Census places

ACS 2024 5-year
Watford City city6KMandaree CDP620Alexander city255Arnegard city201Four Bears Village CDP154East Fairview CDP137
Bars use total place population, not a county-share estimate. An asterisk marks a place that crosses a county line.
Official directory

6 Census places

Population
  1. 01
    Watford City cityIncorporated place
    6,039
  2. 02
    Mandaree CDPCensus-designated place
    620
  3. 03
    Alexander cityIncorporated place
    255
  4. 04
    Arnegard cityIncorporated place
    201
  5. 05
    Four Bears Village CDPCensus-designated place
    154
  6. 06
    East Fairview CDPCensus-designated place
    137

Population is the total place-wide ACS estimate, not an allocated county share. A place crossing a county line is labelled explicitly. Source: Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30.

Risk, demand and competition

The three things a price does not tell you

01
Risk & carrying costFEMA NRI + Census ACS
Dominant hazardinland flooding

0.100% of building value expected lost per year

Effective property tax0.43%

$1,491 median annual bill

02
DemandIRS SOI household flows
Net migration+104

594 in · 490 out

Arriving vs leaving income−$16,427

$66,710 arriving · $83,137 leaving

03
CompetitionHMDA financed purchases
Purchases by investors5.3%

7 of 131 mortgages

investorother financed
Current listing pressure

What sellers and visible supply are doing

Realtor.com® Economic Research · county inventory 2026-06 · pulled 2026-07-28
Active listings27▲ 54.3% year over year
Median days on market44▼ 7.9% year over year
Listings price-reduced9.2%seller-concession signal
Median listing pricen/a▲ 0.9% year over year

Listing price is an asking price, not a closed sale. Quality-flagged county rows are withheld instead of displayed.

Bear case

What can break the county thesis

  1. Unpublished operating costs, vacancy and financing terms could turn the stated gross yield into inadequate net income.
  2. Parcel-specific flood exposure and insurance terms may differ materially from county modeled loss.
  3. MLS listings and tax-return migration may not convert into closed-sale liquidity or durable rental demand.
Underwriting questions

Before pricing a property

Can net yield be calculated from this record?

No. The record supplies gross yield before costs, but not vacancy, operating expenses, insurance, repairs, financing terms, or property-specific taxes.

Does HUD Fair Market Rent establish the county’s market asking rent?

No. It is a two-bedroom payment standard; the record separately publishes a measured median asking rent.

What does QCEW employment represent here?

Annual covered jobs located at county workplaces, not resident employment, unemployment, or a forecast.