Northumberland County presents a cautious underwriting tension: measured price direction is positive, but no county market rent is published to test income against acquisition cost. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $373,532, up 1.89% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 0.90% in its annual observation and 58.85% cumulatively over five years. The index is not a home value; its separate vintage and method support only a broadly positive direction, not one comparable growth period. Income-focused buyers should be cautious.
No county market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,309 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an asking-rent observation, and cannot fill that gap or support a yield. The effective property-tax rate is 0.47%; parcel tax, exemptions, and prospective insurance remain necessary to test carrying cost against a verified lease. Operating margin remains unresolved.
Realtor.com MLS listing-market evidence shows 184 active listings, 39.02% more than a year earlier, a 67-day median marketing time, and 20.78% of listings reduced in price. These are visible asking-supply and seller-concession measures, not closed-sale prices or standalone proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was net positive by 79 households, with incoming mover income exceeding outgoing income, but aggregate data do not identify tenant demand. Investors made 11 of 201 purchases, a buyer-competition input. Annual QCEW reports covered workplace employment declined, not resident employment or a forecast. Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy.
Hurricane is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.18% of building value; this is modeled exposure rather than an insurance quote or dollar loss. It makes insurance, flood-zone, and replacement-cost review important before treating tax as the principal carrying cost. County evidence cannot resolve neighborhood rent, vacancy, lease quality, condition, financing terms, sale comps, or parcel-level hazard exposure. Next checks are asking rents and signed leases, insurance and flood-zone quotes, tax bills, and recent closed comparable sales; without them, cash-flow, exit-price, and risk-adjusted conclusions remain unproven.