Pulaski County has a clear underwriting tension: home-price measures are rising, but market rent is unpublished and net migration is negative. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value is $192,169, up 3.63%. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 3.38% in its annual comparison and 61.77% over its five-year interval. Different vintages and methods mean these confirm direction, not a single growth rate. The thesis is conditional: price and employment merit property-level diligence, but investors needing documented cash flow should be cautious.
Gross yield cannot be computed because market rent is absent. HUD’s $956 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, and cannot substitute for it. Property tax is 0.45% of value, with median annual tax of $708. That is only partial carrying cost: insurance, financing, repairs, vacancy, utilities, and management are not supplied. The record therefore cannot support NOI, cap-rate, or debt-service coverage conclusions.
Demand evidence is mixed. QCEW’s 2025 annual average shows 5,994 covered workplace jobs, up 11.27%, and an average covered-worker weekly wage of $1,097; Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector. These are not resident employment or unemployment. Net migration was -35, although inbound movers’ average AGI exceeded outbound movers’ by $11,994. That is useful context but not sustained housing demand. Purchases totaled 111, including 9 investor purchases, or 8.11%; this is a minority investor share of a small observed base. Realtor.com MLS evidence on asking prices, supply, marketing time, and reductions is unpublished, preventing a buyer-competition read.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard; the modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.10%, not an insurance quote or dollar loss. Check flood zone and elevation, insurance and claims history, verified market and achieved rents, and a full operating and financing budget. The county record does not establish property condition, insurance availability, or property-specific flood severity, so it cannot validate cash flow or a purchase basis. No metro context is supplied; do not treat this county evidence as metro-representative. Investigate selectively where rent and flood files are documentable.