Randolph County is a split-screen acquisition case: Zillow’s county home-value measure is $213,028, up 3.25% year over year, whereas FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 20.76%. The HPI is an index of repeat sales, not a home value, and its annual observation cannot be averaged with Zillow’s differently dated, methodologically distinct change. Buyers who can validate asset-level rents and flood costs should investigate; those relying on headline appreciation or quick resale assumptions should be cautious.
Rental economics are unproven. No market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $778 per month is a payment standard, not evidence of asking rent, and cannot substitute in that calculation. The 0.25% effective property-tax rate and $452 median annual property tax provide carrying-cost inputs, but taxes alone do not establish operating cost or affordability against the Zillow value. Insurance, repairs, debt terms, and rent distribution are not published, preventing a property-level cash-flow conclusion.
Realtor.com MLS evidence warrants file-level scrutiny: 134 active listings, a 78-day median marketing time, and 21.71% of listings with a reduction. These are asking-market supply, exposure-time, and seller-concession indicators—not closed-sale prices or standalone proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration is positive by 56 households, and entrants’ average income exceeds leavers’ by $9,345, but county aggregates do not show the tenure or neighborhoods sought. Non-occupants accounted for 15 of 225 purchase mortgages, indicating a present buyer cohort rather than a measure of all transactions.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss equals 0.15% of building value annually; that rate is modeled, not a quoted insurance premium or realized loss. QCEW describes annual covered jobs at county workplaces, not resident employment or an unemployment rate; its largest disclosed private supersector, Trade, transportation, and utilities, does not describe the whole economy. The thesis can fail if property-specific flood exposure or insurance is worse than county modeling, if usable rent misses carrying costs, or if MLS supply does not convert to executable acquisition pricing. Next checks are rent comps, flood-zone and insurance quotes, tax bills, condition, closed-sale comps, and lease-level tenant demand.