Randolph County presents a conflict between a falling Zillow value signal and a sharply rising FHFA transaction-index signal, leaving value-entry and exit evidence unresolved rather than directional. Zillow’s $141,831 county median home value at 2026-06 was down 1.54% year over year; FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI for 2025 was up 15.59%. The observations use different methods and vintages and cannot be combined into appreciation. Investors using resale assumptions should investigate recent closed-sale comps, property condition, and transaction mix; cautious buyers should not treat either series as a sale-price guarantee.
Housing economics are incomplete. No county market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be calculated. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $880 per month is a payment standard, not a rent estimate or substitute for cash flow. The effective property-tax rate is 0.40%; the reported median annual tax is $527. Underwriters can size a known tax burden, but need achieved and asking rents, vacancy, insurance, utilities, repairs, and financing terms before testing coverage or comparing property types.
Workplace and mover evidence gives a limited demand screen rather than proof of tenant demand. QCEW reports 6,420 annual average covered jobs in 2025, up 3.53%, while Manufacturing—the largest disclosed private supersector—accounts for 36.41% of private covered jobs. This is workplace employment, not resident employment or unemployment. Net migration of 54 tax-return households accompanied an inbound-versus-outbound average AGI gap of $4,698, so arrivals had higher reported average income, but household tenure and housing need are unknown. Investor participation was 10.74% of 149 purchases; it is present but does not establish bidding pressure.
Realtor.com’s MLS evidence shows 103 active listings, 10.81% more than a year earlier, while median marketing time was 67 days; these are visible supply and asking-market time, not sale prices or stand-alone buyer demand. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss is 0.25% of building value. The thesis could fail on local rent support, insurability and flood exposure, or unobserved neighborhood-level sale liquidity. Next checks are rent rolls, flood-zone and insurance quotes, taxes by parcel, and closed comps.