Arkansas rental market data

The direct state recent-lease rent fell from $942 to $933, a 1.0% decline. The separate Vacancy Index increased from 5.9% to 6.6%, a 0.7-percentage-point rise. Together, those movements warrant conservative screening of current lease pricing and expected vacancy, but they do not produce an occupancy-adjusted rent measure.

A counter-signal is that the national rent measure fell 1.1%, slightly more than Arkansas, and Arkansas vacancy remained 0.5 percentage points below the supplied national rate. Those comparisons temper, rather than erase, the state's weaker direction. No Arkansas time-on-market figure is supplied, so the national listing-time series cannot fill that state-specific gap.

Zillow rent growth was 3.7% at the median across 10 measured metros, compared with 2.3% median home-value growth across 13. The supplied difference is 1.4 percentage points. Because the observation counts differ, this is a comparison of measured distributions rather than a matched-market calculation.

Local results show why the state medians are insufficient. In Hot Springs, AR, rent increased 6.5% while value growth was 0.4%; subtracting the supplied figures gives a 6.2-percentage-point gap. In Fort Smith, AR, rent and values each moved about 4.7%. These Zillow measures are distinct from Apartment List's state recent-lease series and should be tested against the specific submarket and property type.

Migration data covered all 75 counties: 81,966 people moved in and 76,575 moved out, leaving net migration of 5,391, or 1.8 per 1,000 residents. Aggregate mover income also had a positive reported gap of $187,279. This is a demand counter-signal to weaker recent-lease conditions, but it does not show how many movers became renters or where they leased.

Employment growth was less uniform. Across 13 metros, the median annual change was 0.2%, with the measured range running from minus 0.7% at the lower decile to 2.5% at the upper decile. Batesville, AR grew 2.9%, Fayetteville, AR 2.6% and Mountain Home, AR 2.4%. Screening therefore needs local employer and renter-demand validation rather than treating positive statewide migration as broad rental absorption.

Across 13 measured metros, the median was 3.8 months of supply, 50 days on market and a 26.3% price-drop share. Conditions were materially slower in parts of the distribution: Pine Bluff, AR had 5.8 months of supply, 90 median days on market and a 95.8% sale-to-list ratio, while Hot Springs, AR had 6.7 months of supply and 76 days on market.

Fayetteville, AR showed a different combination: 9,486 permitted units, or 16.4 per 1,000 residents, alongside 3.4 months of resale supply and 35 median days on market. That makes permit volume and current resale liquidity separate screens. Permits do not establish completions, timing or whether the resulting units will compete with a particular rental property.

Gross yields across 13 measured metros had a 6.4% median and ran from 5.8% at the lower decile to 8.1% at the upper decile. Pine Bluff, AR displayed a 10.0% gross yield on a $103,165 value and $863 monthly rent, below the $1,200 measured metro rent median. Its rent-to-income ratio was 20.1%, and its price-to-income ratio was 2.0.

Jonesboro, AR showed a lower 8.0% gross yield and a higher 29.1% rent-to-income ratio. That contrast separates headline yield from tenant affordability. None of these gross ratios includes operating expenses, repairs, taxes, insurance, concessions or realized vacancy, so they cannot be treated as net returns.

Across 75 counties, the median ACS overall housing vacancy rate was 18.1%, with the measured distribution running from 9.1% to 27.3% between the lower and upper deciles. The median county was 27.5% renter-occupied and 72.2% single-family, while large multifamily represented just 1.0%. These are housing-stock measures, not direct rental availability.

The median share of renters paying at least 30% of income toward rent was 45.9%, and the upper decile was 55.4%. Nevada County and Lee County each had a 73.1% burden share, alongside overall housing vacancy rates of 24.5% and 27.2%, respectively. High burden combined with high overall vacancy flags affordability and stock-fit risk; it does not establish landlord pricing power, and ACS vacancy must not be blended with Apartment List's rental Vacancy Index.