Roseau County’s tension is a rising Zillow home-value reading against a declining FHFA repeat-transaction index, with contracting MLS inventory but softer covered workplace employment and net migration. Underwriters should verify rent and flood exposure; caution is warranted where the case relies on appreciation or rapid resale. Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value is $228,990, up 2.86%; FHFA’s 2025 HPI fell 0.74% annually after a 39.01% five-year change. Their methods and periods differ and cannot yield one appreciation rate.
Market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD FMR is a payment standard, not asking-rent evidence. The effective property-tax rate is 0.97% and median annual tax is $1,779; use both as carrying-cost inputs, not acquisition-cost substitutes. The modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.21% of building value; inland flood is the dominant hazard. This is a modeled risk measure, not a property-specific loss estimate.
Demand evidence is cautious but incomplete. Annual QCEW covered employment at county workplaces fell 3.60%; it is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return migration was negative 110 households, and inbound movers’ average income was $155 below outbound movers’. That combination does not demonstrate higher-income inflow offsetting departures. County indicators do not establish tenant demand for a particular asset.
Realtor.com’s MLS snapshot shows 53 active listings; inventory and marketing time declined and median listing prices fell year over year, while some sellers had price reductions. These are visible asking-supply and concession measures, not closed-sale price or buyer-demand proof. Investor purchase mortgages were seven of 96, a 7.29% non-owner-occupant share; this omits cash buyers and bidding intensity. Next checks: property-level market rent, executed sales comparables, flood zone and insurance quotes, prior damage and mitigation, and actual tax bills. Without them, cash flow, resale execution and hazard-adjusted expense cannot be underwritten.