San Juan County presents a thin-evidence tension: Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $364,132, up 1.73%, while FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction index rose 4.07%. These are different vintages and methods, so they should not be blended. The case merits parcel-level work by an investor who can verify rents and flood exposure; anyone needing a reliable yield signal should be cautious. The record supports screening price direction, not assuming a deep or representative market.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $1,144 per month, but it is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent. The home-value figure therefore cannot be tested against rent, vacancy, or operating costs. Property tax is supplied at an effective 0.80%, with median annual tax of $1,788; both belong in carrying-cost underwriting, but no property-level expense schedule is provided. The housing conclusion is valuation-sensitive, not yield-supported.
Demand is mixed rather than validated. Tax-return flows show 296 moved in against 353 moved out, producing net migration of -57. Incoming movers’ average AGI exceeds outgoing movers’ by the supplied $4,412 gap, a supportive quality signal that does not erase the outflow. QCEW shows annual covered jobs at county workplaces and covered wages both growing, with Education and health services the largest disclosed private supersector; this is workplace employment, not resident employment, and not the whole economy. No Realtor.com active-listing, days-on-market, price-reduction, or pending figures are supplied, so MLS supply and marketing-time evidence is unavailable. Recorded purchases total 86 and investor share is 0%; that limits evidence of non-occupant competition but does not prove rental demand or explain buyer mix.
Risk limits are material. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled climate loss ratio is 0.05% of building value per year; it is not a parcel-level flood-zone, insurance, deductible, or claims result. The record also lacks vacancy, operating expenses, financing terms, property condition, and comparable closed sales, preventing a cap-rate, cash-flow, or resale-valuation conclusion. Next checks are a rent roll or local asking-rent set, parcel flood and insurance review, and validation of the purchase and Realtor samples. The incomplete evidence supports a cautious screen, not a complete underwriting decision.