San Juan County’s underwriting tension is a $887,832 county median home value against unmeasured market rent and material carrying-cost uncertainty, while the available price measures point in different directions. The record therefore calls for caution in cash-flow underwriting and property-level rent, tax and flood investigation before a return case can be formed. Zillow’s county observation for 2026-06 shows a 0.50% year-over-year decline, whereas FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 3%. These are different methods and vintages: FHFA is not a home value, and the observations cannot be averaged into a growth rate.
No county market asking rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,762 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot fill that gap. The supplied effective property-tax rate is 0.53%; it informs carrying-cost diligence but does not establish the bill for a specific acquisition. Missing lease comparables and an asset-specific tax assessment prevent a defensible income-after-tax comparison to the county value.
Realtor.com’s 2026-06 MLS listing market showed 206 active listings, a 60-day median marketing time, and price reductions on 14.01% of listings. These are asking-market supply, marketing-time and seller-concession measures, not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was net positive by 10 households, while inbound movers’ average income exceeded outbound movers’ by $20,519; that is a narrow migration signal rather than an occupancy measure. Investor mortgages represented 11.19% of purchases, showing some non-owner participation but not the cash-buyer share or investor holdings.
QCEW reports 6,178 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces; it is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Leisure and hospitality is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building-value loss equals 0.14%. Property-level flood zone, elevation, insurance quote, condition and closed-sale comparables are not published. Their absence prevents pricing hazard costs, testing parcel value and determining whether listing conditions translate into executable acquisition terms.