Scioto County is a momentum-versus-underwriting-evidence case for a buyer who can verify property-level income, not for one relying on headline appreciation. Zillow’s county median home value is $146,633, up 8.70% in its observation, while FHFA’s separate annual repeat-transaction HPI reading increased 6.92%. The two measures point in the same direction, but are not interchangeable: FHFA is an index rather than a dollar value, and their methods and supplied periods differ. This supports price diligence, not a conclusion about realizable exit pricing.
Income underwriting is the central gap. County market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $973 per month is a payment standard, not an estimate of market asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 1.06%, with median annual tax of $1,459; these are carrying-cost inputs, but neither establishes the tax bill for a particular parcel. Rent rolls, achieved rents, vacancy, insurance and parcel assessments are needed before a cash-flow conclusion.
Demand evidence is mixed. QCEW’s annual covered employment at county workplaces fell 0.60%; it is not resident employment or a forecast. Outmovers exceeded inmovers by 52, although inbound moving households had average AGI $783 above outbound movers. Non-occupant purchase mortgages were 36 of 548 total purchases, so this activity is visible but not a proxy for all buyers. Realtor.com’s MLS listing-market data show 100 active listings, down 16.39%, alongside a 50-day median marketing time, up 28.85%. Lower visible supply therefore sits with slower marketing; neither asking listings nor days on market prove closed-sale demand.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. The modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.16% of building value, an aggregate modeled expectation rather than a property-specific loss or insurance quote. It changes diligence toward flood-zone status, elevation, prior losses, coverage availability and premiums. Missing closed-sale comparables, loan terms, property condition, parcel-level taxes, insurance quotes, rent and vacancy data prevent a supported purchase-price, operating-cost or resale-liquidity conclusion. County evidence cannot determine neighborhood or asset performance.