Scott County is a verification case: buyers who can validate rent and flood exposure should investigate, while debt-dependent buyers should be cautious without income evidence. Zillow’s county median home value was $206,441 in 2026-06, up 4.73% year over year. That direction is consistent with, but not directly comparable to, the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI, which rose 2.56% in 2025. FHFA measures price change among repeat transactions rather than a home value, and neither series establishes a property’s sale price.
No county market rent is published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,009 FMR is a payment standard rather than asking rent and cannot substitute for rent in underwriting. The 0.65% effective property-tax rate and $1,025 median annual tax provide only a partial carrying-cost view; insurance, financing, repairs, and property-specific tax bills are not published. Price evidence therefore says little about cash flow or affordability for a particular asset.
Realtor.com’s MLS evidence points to seller flexibility: median listing price fell 1.69% year over year, active inventory increased, 27.44% of listings had a price reduction, and the pending-to-active ratio was 72.17%. These are asking-price, visible-supply, concession, and pipeline measures—not closed prices or proof of buyer demand. QCEW annual covered workplace employment rose 2.79%, while Manufacturing represented 38.75% of disclosed private covered employment. Net migration was positive, and the $5,995 gap between incoming and outgoing mover AGI shows higher income among incoming movers, not tenant demand. Investor mortgages were 5.15% of purchases, a limited recorded non-owner presence that does not capture all-cash activity.
Risk remains concentrated in what county aggregates cannot resolve. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual building-value loss is 0.12%; this is a modeled ratio, not a parcel-level flood-loss estimate. Next checks are property-level flood zone, insurance, condition, current asking rents, lease-up evidence, closed-sale comparables, financing terms, and tax bills. Without them, the record cannot test net operating income, debt coverage, resale liquidity, or hazard-adjusted returns.