Shelby County is a mixed screen: Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $218,220, up 4.49% year over year, while FHFA’s separately dated 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 5.48%. The aligned direction warrants investigation by buyers able to underwrite uncertain exit conditions, but calls for caution from resale-dependent investors. Zillow’s value measure and FHFA’s index use different methods and vintages; their growth rates cannot be combined.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $919 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot be used as rent. An effective property-tax rate of 1.28% is a carrying-cost input against the home-value benchmark. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.16% of building value; it is modeled exposure, not a property-specific insurance quote or loss history.
Realtor.com’s MLS median listing price declined from a year earlier; its 31 active listings also declined, while the 77-day median marketing time lengthened and 23.51% of listings had reductions. These are asking-price, visible-supply, marketing-time, and seller-concession measures—not closed-sale pricing or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was net positive by 30 households, yet the reported average-AGI gap, calculated as incoming minus outgoing, was negative $7,875, a demand-quality caveat. Investors made 20 of 117 purchases, or 17.09%, signaling present competition but not its effect on values. Annual QCEW workplace covered employment rose from its prior annual average; it is not resident employment or unemployment. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the entire economy.
These are county-level screens, not property underwriting. Obtain achievable market rent, lease terms, vacancy, and turnover before assessing income coverage; their absence prevents gross-yield and rent-to-FMR analysis. Verify parcel assessment, tax bill, flood zone, elevation, insurance availability, deductibles, and claims history. Obtain recent closed-sale comparables, listing histories, financing mix, and buyer type to test the exit assumption. The record does not establish tenant demand, insurability, or transaction-level pricing.