Shoshone County has a cash-flow-versus-price-trend tension: underwriters able to validate rents and flood exposure may investigate; those reliant on rapid resale or uniform county risk should be cautious. Zillow’s June 2026 county measures put median home value at $284,083, down 0.30% year over year, while FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 6.55%. Different vintages and methods matter: HPI tracks paired-property appreciation, not a dollar value, and cannot be blended with Zillow into one trend.
Its measured median asking rent is $1,700 per month and supplied gross yield is 7.18% before vacancy, repairs, insurance, financing and taxes. This is market asking-rent evidence; HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot replace it in a yield calculation. The 0.50% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input, but cannot establish a specific property’s tax bill. Price and rent provide a gross, not net, cash-flow screen.
Realtor.com’s June 2026 MLS data show 85 active listings, with 23.7% carrying price reductions. These measure visible asking-market supply and seller concessions, not closed prices or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return data show net migration of 28 households and a $5,308 average AGI gap in favor of inbound movers. That combination requires local tenant and buyer checks, not a demand conclusion. Investor purchase mortgages were 10 of 193 purchases, suggesting limited measured non-owner participation, not an absence of competition. Separately, QCEW annual-average workplace data show covered employment and wages increased; Natural resources and mining was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy or resident labor market.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual climate loss is 0.44% of building value. Reconcile this county-level model with parcel flood maps, insurance quotes, elevation and replacement cost. Missing closed-sale comps prevent a resale-price conclusion; unit-level rent comps, vacancy and operating expenses prevent NOI or debt-service conclusions; property-specific taxes and insurance prevent a true carrying-cost conclusion. Verify flood coverage, leaseability and employment composition before treating county figures as property underwriting.