Sullivan County’s decision tension is a rising Zillow county value against tight-looking visible listing conditions and incomplete income-to-rent evidence. Both Zillow and Realtor.com observations are labeled 2026-06; Zillow places the county median home value at $105,926, up 5.72% year over year. This merits investigation by buyers who can verify asset-level rent and cost data, but caution for anyone relying on county averages. No FHFA annual repeat-transaction HPI observation is supplied, so Zillow’s value direction has no independent index check here and must not be blended with a separately supplied FHFA reading.
Published market asking rent is absent, so gross yield cannot be computed from this record. HUD’s $888 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not a substitute for market rent. The effective property-tax rate is 0.69%, requiring parcel-level confirmation of the actual bill. Inland flood is the dominant hazard; modeled annual climate loss equals 0.13% of building value, a ratio rather than a dollar loss. Neither the tax measure nor the hazard model establishes insurance, flood-zone, or repair costs for a specific home.
Realtor.com MLS evidence shows median listing price 40.42% higher year over year, alongside 22 active listings, and 23.09% of listings with price reductions; the pending-to-active ratio was 30.23%. These are asking-price, visible-supply, concession and listing-status measures—not closed-sale prices or proof of buyer demand by themselves. Higher asks coexist with price reductions, an underwriting tension that calls for individual listing histories, contract terms and comparable closed transactions before treating Zillow’s value change as executable purchase pricing.
Demand evidence is mixed and narrow. QCEW’s 2025 annual workplace series shows covered employment down 1.75%, not resident employment; trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Tax-return migration was negative 19 households, although incoming movers’ average AGI exceeded outgoing movers’ by a calculated $7,464. One investor purchase among 32 total purchases limits claims about investor competition. Next checks are market rents, lease-up and vacancy, insurance and flood exposure, sale comps, and property-level taxes; without them, yield, operating margin and exit-price underwriting remain untested.