Sullivan County presents a mixed initial screen: the Zillow county price observation labeled 2026-06 is $219,494, up 7.84%, while the FHFA repeat-transaction index labeled annual 2025 is up 7.87%. The agreement is supportive, but these are different measures and vintages, not one growth series. With 7 of 8 evidence groups available, investors should investigate rather than treat appreciation as a complete underwriting case. Buyers needing dependable rental economics or liquidity should be cautious.
Economics remain unresolved. Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed; HUD's $973 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking-rent evidence. The effective property-tax rate is 1.02%, with median annual tax of $2,015. The price therefore cannot be tested against rent after taxes; verified asking and achieved rents, vacancy, insurance, repairs, utilities, and financing terms are still needed.
Demand evidence is modest and mixed. QCEW reports 1,475 annual covered jobs, down 3.47% year over year, and an average covered weekly wage of $841; these are workplace jobs, not resident employment or unemployment. Net tax-return migration was 10 households, while inbound movers' average AGI exceeded outbound movers' by the supplied $17,439 gap: favorable income evidence, but not proof of recurring rental demand. Investor purchases were 4 of 78 purchase mortgages, or 5.13%, indicating limited measured non-occupant competition. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector at 19.63% of private covered jobs, not the whole economy.
Risk limits are material. Inland flood is the dominant supplied hazard; the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.19% of building value per year, not a parcel flood-zone, insurance quote, deductible, or claim history. Parcel flood and drainage review, insurance terms, and inspection-based repair estimates are next checks. Realtor.com inventory figures are absent, so active supply, marketing time, price reductions, and listing-price evidence cannot be assessed. That missing MLS evidence prevents a view of marketing competition; missing market rent prevents a gross-yield decision.