Swift County’s underwriting tension is a rising Zillow county value against weaker workplace and migration indicators, with no published market rent to test income coverage. The 2026-06 Zillow median home value is $199,968, up 5.76% year over year. This is a county for buyers who can independently validate achievable rent, tenant depth, and property flood exposure; it warrants caution where the case depends on modeled rent growth, rapid resale, or thin cash-flow margins.
Price direction has a second but non-equivalent check: FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 1.14% annually and 46.14% over five years. It is an index, not a home value, and its 2025 annual observation cannot be averaged with Zillow’s 2026-06 value change. Market rent is not published. HUD’s $973 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent, so gross yield cannot be computed. The 0.86% effective property-tax rate is a known carrying-cost input, but not an operating-income conclusion.
Demand evidence is mixed and county-specific. QCEW’s 2025 annual average of covered jobs at county workplaces declined 3%, while covered-worker average weekly wage declined 2.05%; these are neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Trade, transportation, and utilities supplied 28.57% of private covered jobs, the largest disclosed private supersector rather than the whole economy. Tax-return migration showed a net loss of 29 households, and departing movers’ average income exceeded incoming movers’ by $15,250. Investors accounted for 10 of 94 purchase mortgages, or 10.64%, indicating some non-owner competition but not its rental performance.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled expected annual building-value loss of 0.15%; it is a county-level modeled ratio rather than a property insurance quote or flood-zone determination. Realtor.com MLS listing price, active listings, days on market, price-reduced share, and pending ratio are not published, preventing an assessment of visible supply, seller concessions, or marketing time. Property-specific flood history, insurance cost, condition, and lease evidence are also absent; those gaps prevent a defensible cash-flow and exit-liquidity conclusion.