Taylor County’s decision tension is a modestly softening broad price read against a still large prior FHFA run-up, with no published market rent to test income. Income-focused and leverage-sensitive underwriters need investigation rather than a settled appreciation view. Zillow’s June 2026 median home value is $215,873, down 2.55% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI fell 0.50% year over year but remained 62.18% higher over five years. These are different sources, periods and measures—not a blended appreciation rate—and the HPI is not a home value.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent, and cannot be substituted. The 0.69% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input alongside the home value, but assessment treatment and insurance, maintenance, utilities, vacancy and financing costs are not published. Their absence prevents a net-cash-flow conclusion even before flood exposure is tested.
Realtor.com’s June 2026 MLS evidence shows tighter visible inventory, not confirmed buyer depth: 92 active listings, down 21.37%, and median marketing time shortened to 55 days. Yet 18.03% of listings had price reductions, a seller-concession signal. Its median listing price rose 9.32% year over year, contrasting with Zillow’s direction, but this is an asking-price measure, not a closed-sale price. Closed-sale volume is not supplied, so absorption and buyer demand remain unproven.
QCEW’s 2025 annual covered workplace employment declined 2.38%; this is neither resident employment nor a forecast. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the entire county economy. Migration was net positive and inbound movers reported higher average AGI than outbound movers, but tax-return moves do not establish tenant demand. Investor purchase mortgages represented 9.94% of 171 total purchase mortgages, relevant to competition but not proof of rental demand. Inland flood is the dominant hazard; modeled expected annual building loss is 0.13%, a county-level figure rather than a parcel estimate. Verify leases and market rents, closed sales, flood-zone and insurance details, tax assessment and operating expenses.