Teton County offers a mixed underwriting signal: measured home-price appreciation is firm, but the income case for paying that price is untested. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $364,002, up 9.21%. FHFA’s annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 7.21%. Those observations point in the same direction, but their vintages and methods differ and must not be averaged into one growth rate. Buyers seeking rental income should investigate achieved rents before treating appreciation as the thesis; buyers underwriting a rental yield should be cautious.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $1,360 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of asking rent and not a substitute for market rent. The price-to-rent relationship therefore cannot be tested. The effective property-tax rate is 0.75%. That carrying cost matters, but without rent, vacancy, insurance, repairs, management, and financing inputs, the record cannot support a net-yield conclusion. It supports a price observation, not a rent-backed valuation.
Demand evidence is supportive but narrow. The QCEW annual record shows 1,831 covered jobs and 2.63% year-over-year growth, plus an $867 average weekly wage. These are jobs located at county workplaces, not resident employment or unemployment; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Net migration was 16 tax-return households, and the supplied AGI gap was $10,975 in favor of movers in. That is a favorable composition signal but does not establish causation. Investor purchases were 4 of 50 total purchase mortgages, or 8%; that describes observed investor participation, not buyer demand. No metro context is supplied.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.13% of building value per year. It is a modeled building-loss measure, not an insurance quote, premium, deductible, or full ownership-cost estimate. Check parcel flood-zone and elevation records, insurance terms, drainage or mitigation history, and property condition. No Realtor.com MLS measures are supplied, so asking-price positioning, visible supply, marketing time, and seller concessions cannot be assessed. Actual rent, vacancy, operating expenses, and financing terms are also missing. Appreciation, labor, and migration merit investigation, but missing rent and property-level hazard costs prevent a net-yield or cash-flow conclusion.