Toole County’s decision tension is a visible value increase without published market rent or listing-market depth, so the record supports diligence rather than a cash-flow conclusion. Zillow’s county median home value was $189,510 at its 2026-06 observation, up 2.06% year over year. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI, separately reported for 2025, rose 0.34% over its annual interval. The index is not a home value, and the distinct methods and vintages cannot be blended. Investors reliant on rent or resale liquidity should be cautious.
County market rent is not published; therefore gross yield cannot be computed. The $1,230 HUD two-bedroom Fair Market Rent is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot substitute for market rent. The effective property-tax rate is 0.87%, with median annual tax of $1,908. That carrying-cost evidence can be budgeted, but it cannot establish rent coverage or a net operating result; property-level tax bills and operating costs remain unreported.
QCEW’s 2025 annual average records 1,758 covered jobs at county workplaces, down 2.01%, while the covered-worker average weekly wage increased 8.20%. These are neither resident employment nor a forecast. Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector and accounts for 32.11% of private covered employment, a concentration to test against the tenant base. Net migration was 39 tax-return households; yet incoming movers’ average AGI was $31,775 versus $41,990 for outbound movers, a calculated $10,215 gap. Thus the headcount gain does not establish stronger purchasing power. Investor purchases were 0.00% of 32 total purchases: limited recorded investor participation, not proof of weak or strong buyer demand.
Inland flood is the stated dominant hazard. The modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.09% of building value; it is not a parcel-specific dollar loss or an insurance quote. Realtor.com figures are not published, preventing an MLS-based read of asking prices, visible supply, marketing time, or seller concessions; those figures would not be closed-sale evidence in any event. Next checks are property-level flood zone, insurance terms and deductibles, market-rent comps, tax bill, and closed-sale comps. Their absence prevents a defensible cash-flow, exit-liquidity, and hazard-cost conclusion.