Counties / Arkansas / Union County

Union County, AR

FIPS 05139 · population 37,900 · outside every metro area

$127k
Zillow home value · 2026-06
The numbers

What this county costs and earns

Everything here joins on the county FIPS code, so each figure comes from the agency that publishes it with no name matching in between.

Zillow home value
$127k
▲ 1.5% year over year
Zillow ZHVI · direct
ACS median gross rent
$847
occupied-unit survey; not current asking rent
Census ACS · surveyed
Gross yield
n/a
gross yield cannot be computed without measured market rent
requires both measured price and measured rent
HUD 2-bed standard
$923
the Section 8 payment standard
HUD Fair Market Rent · direct
Independent price check

Do two methods point the same way?

Zillow estimates a current home value. FHFA tracks repeat mortgage transactions. Their growth rates should be read side by side, not averaged.

The annual signals disagree
FHFA five-year cumulative+22.5%not annualized · through 2025
0%ZILLOW ZHVI2026-06+1.5%FHFA HPI2025−0.4%
Annual changes use different methods and may use different periods. The comparison checks direction and magnitude; it does not create a blended estimate. Zillow county ZHVI pulled 2026-07-26; FHFA annual county HPI pulled 2026-07-28.
Owner-reported value$121k
Surveyed gross rent$847
Rent burden 30%+44.4%
Median year built1979
Housing composition

Who occupies the stock—and what it is

ACS 2024 5-year
19.6%vacant
18,649estimated housing units
Occupied tenure27.3% renter
owner 72.7%renter 27.3%
Structure mix71.6% single-family
Single-family 71.6%20+ units 0.6%Mobile home 20.2%Other 7.6%
ACS estimates describe the standing housing stock and occupied tenure. They do not measure current listings, transaction prices or asking rents.

Survey source: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30. These values describe different housing universes and are not combined into gross yield.

Annual average covered jobs16,064▼ 2.3% from the prior annual release
Covered establishments1,193annual average reporting locations
Average weekly wage$1,201▲ 1.3% from the prior annual release
Largest private supersectorTrade, transportation, and utilities23.7% of disclosed private covered jobs
Local labor base

Jobs, pay and private-sector concentration

2025
0%COVERED JOBS−2.3%WEEKLY WAGE+1.3%Trade, transportation, and utilities23.7%
Annual QCEW counts cover jobs located at reporting establishments. The industry share uses disclosed private covered employment; it is not a resident-employment measure or a forecast.

Workplace source: BLS QCEW — county employment and wages · annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 · pulled 2026-07-31. QCEW counts covered jobs located in the county, not employed residents or the metro score’s CES/LAUS series.

County brief

What the local evidence says

01Decision frame

Union County presents a valuation-versus-liquidity tension for investors who need durable income rather than a price-only entry point. Zillow’s county median home value was $127,395 in 2026-06, up 1.47% year over year, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI fell 0.35% in 2025. These are different methods and labeled periods, so they cannot be merged into one appreciation reading. Buyers dependent on near-term resale should investigate the divergence before treating the Zillow movement as confirmation.

02Housing economics

Housing economics remain untestable on the central income measure: market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. The supplied HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an estimate of local asking rent, and cannot substitute for market rent. The reported effective property-tax rate is 0.57%, with median annual tax of $685; these county indicators do not establish an individual parcel’s tax bill. Parcel assessments, bills, and reassessment exposure are needed for carrying-cost underwriting.

03Demand & competition

Demand and buyer competition warrant local verification. Realtor.com MLS active listings were 25.40% higher year over year, which is visible supply evidence rather than a closed-sale price or proof of buyer demand. QCEW annual covered workplace employment declined 2.34% in 2025; this is neither resident employment nor an unemployment measure. Tax-return migration was negative 151 households, while mover AGI averaged $50,438 inbound versus $52,655 outbound. Investor purchase mortgages were 30 of 280 purchases, or 10.71%, defining a measurable non-occupant channel but not its bidding intensity.

04Risk & next checks

Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss equals 0.13% of building value annually; it is a modeled expectation, not a property-specific insurance quote or dollar loss. Address-level flood exposure, insurance premiums, deductibles, lease comparables, vacancy, operating expenses, and closed-sale comparables are not published here. Without rent and expense evidence, income return cannot be underwritten; without closed sales, MLS listings cannot establish exit pricing. Those gaps are especially important where Zillow and FHFA provide conflicting annual direction.

Cities & communities

Where people live within Union County

Census-recognized incorporated places and CDPs that intersect this county. The list does not pretend to include every neighborhood or informal community.

Population scale

Largest Census places

ACS 2024 5-year
El Dorado city17.1KSmackover city2.4KNorphlet city1KJunction City city564Strong city434Huttig city401Calion city355Urbana CDP147
Bars use total place population, not a county-share estimate. An asterisk marks a place that crosses a county line.
Official directory

11 Census places

Population
  1. 01
    El Dorado cityIncorporated place
    17,115
  2. 02
    Smackover cityIncorporated place
    2,419
  3. 03
    Norphlet cityIncorporated place
    1,003
  4. 04
    Junction City cityIncorporated place
    564
  5. 05
    Strong cityIncorporated place
    434
  6. 06
    Huttig cityIncorporated place
    401
  7. 07
    Calion cityIncorporated place
    355
  8. 08
    Urbana CDPCensus-designated place
    147
  9. 09
    Lawson CDPCensus-designated place
    86
  10. 10
    Felsenthal townIncorporated place
    40
  11. 11
    Mount Holly CDPCensus-designated place
    18

Population is the total place-wide ACS estimate, not an allocated county share. A place crossing a county line is labelled explicitly. Source: Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30.

Risk, demand and competition

The three things a price does not tell you

01
Risk & carrying costFEMA NRI + Census ACS
Dominant hazardinland flooding

0.131% of building value expected lost per year

Effective property tax0.57%

$685 median annual bill

02
DemandIRS SOI household flows
Net migration-151

571 in · 722 out

Arriving vs leaving income−$2,217

$50,438 arriving · $52,655 leaving

03
CompetitionHMDA financed purchases
Purchases by investors10.7%

30 of 280 mortgages

investorother financed
Current listing pressure

What sellers and visible supply are doing

Realtor.com® Economic Research · county inventory 2026-06 · pulled 2026-07-28
Active listings79▲ 25.4% year over year
Median days on market87▲ 16.1% year over year
Listings price-reduced12.7%seller-concession signal
Median listing pricen/a▼ 0.7% year over year

Listing price is an asking price, not a closed sale. Quality-flagged county rows are withheld instead of displayed.

No rent index is published for this county.Zillow’s county rent series does not cover every county, and estimating one from a neighbouring county would be a guess wearing a number’s clothes. Everything above is measured here; no wider market is mapped for it either.
Bear case

What can break the county thesis

  1. The Zillow gain may not translate into realized sale pricing because the FHFA repeat-sales index declined.
  2. Absent market rent, vacancy, and operating-cost evidence could materially change income underwriting.
  3. Address-level flood exposure, insurance cost, and parcel tax assessment may differ from county-level indicators.
Underwriting questions

Before pricing a property

Can gross yield be calculated from this record?

No. Market rent is not published, and HUD FMR is a payment standard rather than market rent.

What does the record show about investor buyer participation?

Investor purchase mortgages were 30 of 280 purchases, or 10.71%.

What is the leading disclosed physical risk?

Inland flood is the dominant hazard, with modeled climate loss of 0.13% of building value annually.