Union County’s decision tension is appreciation evidence against a slow, concession-heavy MLS marketing backdrop. Investors who can independently validate lease income, insurance, and condition should investigate; those relying on quick resale, asking-price strength, or published payment standards should be cautious. Zillow’s county median home value was $272,385 in 2026-06, while Realtor.com reported a 78-day median listing marketing time and 42.36% of listings with price reductions. These are active-listing signals, not closed-sale prices or standalone proof of buyer demand.
Zillow’s measure rose 3.37% year over year. FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI, labeled 2025, rose 11.29% annually. The index is not a home value; its different method and vintage cannot be averaged with Zillow’s rate. Market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be calculated. HUD’s $1,132 FMR is a payment standard, not market rent. The 0.58% effective property-tax rate is a carrying-cost input, but insurance, assessments, and operating costs are not published.
Visible supply and mover evidence call for property-level demand work rather than a simple scarcity conclusion. Realtor.com showed 22 active MLS listings in 2026-06, and its 30.23% pending-to-active ratio measures listing status, not completed purchases. Net migration was 62 tax-return households, yet arriving movers’ average AGI was $981 below departing movers’ average AGI. That combination adds households but does not establish purchasing-power growth. Investor participation was 2.20% of 91 purchases, a limited competitive presence in the recorded purchase-mortgage set rather than a measure of all cash buyers or all transactions.
Risk limits are material in a hurricane-dominant county. Modeled expected annual climate loss equaled 0.23% of building value; it should be tested against address-level wind, flood, deductible, and availability terms, not converted here into a dollar loss. In 2025, QCEW annual covered workplace employment declined 0.20%; this is neither resident employment nor unemployment, and trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector. Next checks are property-specific market rents, insurance quotes and flood/wind exposure, closed-sale comparables, condition, financing terms, and tax assessment; without rents and expenses, cash flow and yield cannot be underwritten.