Union County presents a cash-flow-versus-resale-liquidity tension. At Zillow's 2026-06 county observation, the $390,940 median home value and $1,872 monthly median asking rent produce the reported 5.75% gross yield before operating costs. That spread merits property-level cash-flow review, but buyers relying on a rapid resale or thin carrying-cost margin should be cautious. The key question is whether measured rent can absorb taxes, insurance and maintenance alongside current listing conditions.
Price signals are not aligned: Zillow's county value was down 0.48% year over year, whereas FHFA's annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI was up 5.94%. FHFA is an appreciation index rather than a dollar home value, so these different methods and vintages cannot be combined into one growth rate. The effective property-tax rate is 0.52%, with a $1,611 median annual bill; underwriters should model each parcel rather than treat the county median as a bill. HUD's two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not market rent, and must not replace the published asking rent or gross-yield calculation.
Realtor.com MLS evidence shows 371 active listings and 29.84% with price reductions, conditions consistent with visible supply and seller concessions but not proof of closed-sale demand. Net migration was 367 tax-return households, and movers in had a $31,909 average-income advantage over movers out; this supports examination of renter and buyer depth, not a demand forecast. Investors represented 8.42% of 368 purchase mortgages, indicating participation without establishing control of the buyer pool. Annual QCEW workplace evidence shows covered employment edging lower while covered-worker average weekly wage rose; Trade, transportation, and utilities is the largest disclosed private supersector, not resident employment or the whole economy.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled expected annual climate loss equals 0.14% of building value; that pairing makes site elevation, drainage, flood-zone status, deductibles and renewal terms central to underwriting. County averages cannot identify a parcel's exposure or coverage cost. Missing evidence includes sale-price comps and transaction volume, vacancy and rent trend by unit type, insurance quotes, operating expenses, debt terms, and parcel assessments. Their absence prevents a reliable net-yield, resale-liquidity, and property-specific flood-cost conclusion.