Union County presents an appreciation-versus-cash-flow tension. Zillow’s median home value is $164,334, up 5.39% in June 2026, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI rose 11% in annual 2025 data and 41.40% cumulatively over five years. These are different measures and vintages, not a blended growth rate or home value. The positive price signal merits property-level investigation by an appreciation-oriented buyer; a cash-flow buyer should be cautious because market rent is not published and gross yield cannot be computed.
HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $919 per month, but it is a payment standard rather than asking rent and cannot substitute for market rent. That missing measure blocks a rent-to-price test and any gross-yield calculation. The effective property-tax rate is 1.80%, with median annual tax of $2,197. Against the stated price, taxes belong in carrying-cost underwriting, but insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing and property-level tax detail are not supplied. Thus, price appreciation is not evidence of acceptable operating cash flow.
Realtor.com MLS evidence shows median listing-price growth of 19.80%, with active listings and marketing time providing context rather than closed-sale proof; a price-reduced share and pending ratio likewise do not establish buyer demand. QCEW reports 5,817 annual covered jobs, down 1.57%, while the average covered-worker wage is $1,004 per week, up 4.37%. Manufacturing is the largest disclosed private supersector, so the wage base has a disclosed concentration and is not the whole economy. Tax-return migration was slightly negative, and incoming movers had lower average AGI than outgoing movers. Investor purchases were a small minority of total purchases, so recorded investor competition appears limited, but that does not resolve overall demand.
Underwriting should next obtain a market-rent set, closed-sale comparables, property-level taxes, insurance quotes and flood-zone or elevation information. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, while the modeled building-loss ratio is 0.11% annually; that modeled figure is not a property-specific insurance or repair budget. Also verify the subject’s condition, utilities, financing terms, vacancy assumptions and employment exposure before treating the price signal as investable. The record cannot establish net operating income, debt coverage, resale liquidity or hazard-adjusted returns, so those conclusions remain open.