Union County presents an appreciation-versus-underwriting-verifiability tension: Zillow’s June 2026 median home value was $199,747, up 7.1% year over year, while FHFA’s 2025 annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 20.03% year over year. These are separate vintages and methods; the HPI is not a home value. Investigate only with property-level operating evidence, and be cautious where the case depends on assumed rent or resale liquidity.
Against that value level, county market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $956 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 0.64%, with $1,116 median annual tax; these are carrying-cost inputs, not a complete expense load. No Realtor.com MLS data on asking price, active listing supply, days on market, or reductions is supplied, so visible supply, marketing time, and seller concessions cannot be assessed.
At county workplaces, 2025 QCEW annual covered employment grew 3.67%, and the average covered-worker weekly wage was $859. Manufacturing, the largest disclosed private supersector, accounted for 34.62% of private covered jobs, a concentration to test against tenant and buyer depth. Net tax-return migration was 23 households, while inbound movers’ average income exceeded outbound movers’ by $7,297; neither measure is a population forecast. Non-owner purchase mortgages were 4 of 66 total, a 6.06% share, showing measured investor participation but not the entire buyer pool.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard. Modeled climate loss equals 0.15% of building value annually, a modeled ratio rather than a property insurance quote or dollar loss; verify flood zone, elevation, claims, coverage, and deductible for each asset. Missing market-rent and MLS listing-market evidence prevents conclusions on gross yield, operating margin, entry pricing versus asking supply, and exit timing. Next checks are property-specific leases, full expense and insurance quotes, and closed-sale comparables, because county evidence cannot resolve block-level flood exposure or asset condition.