Counties / Kentucky / Union County

Union County, KY

FIPS 21225 · population 13,260 · outside every metro area

$142k
Zillow home value · 2026-06
The numbers

What this county costs and earns

Everything here joins on the county FIPS code, so each figure comes from the agency that publishes it with no name matching in between.

Zillow home value
$142k
▼ 1.6% year over year
Zillow ZHVI · direct
ACS median gross rent
$790
occupied-unit survey; not current asking rent
Census ACS · surveyed
Gross yield
n/a
gross yield cannot be computed without measured market rent
requires both measured price and measured rent
HUD 2-bed standard
$911
the Section 8 payment standard
HUD Fair Market Rent · direct
Independent price check

Do two methods point the same way?

Zillow estimates a current home value. FHFA tracks repeat mortgage transactions. Their growth rates should be read side by side, not averaged.

The annual signals disagree
FHFA five-year cumulative+53.4%not annualized · through 2025
0%ZILLOW ZHVI2026-06−1.6%FHFA HPI2025+10.3%
Annual changes use different methods and may use different periods. The comparison checks direction and magnitude; it does not create a blended estimate. Zillow county ZHVI pulled 2026-07-26; FHFA annual county HPI pulled 2026-07-28.
Owner-reported value$105k
Surveyed gross rent$790
Rent burden 30%+33.6%
Median year built1976
Housing composition

Who occupies the stock—and what it is

ACS 2024 5-year
11.1%vacant
5,846estimated housing units
Occupied tenure29.8% renter
owner 70.2%renter 29.8%
Structure mix75.6% single-family
Single-family 75.6%20+ units 0.5%Mobile home 15.4%Other 8.5%
ACS estimates describe the standing housing stock and occupied tenure. They do not measure current listings, transaction prices or asking rents.

Survey source: Census ACS 5-year — county housing value, tenure and stock · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30. These values describe different housing universes and are not combined into gross yield.

Annual average covered jobs5,112▼ 2.2% from the prior annual release
Covered establishments390annual average reporting locations
Average weekly wage$1,174▼ 0.1% from the prior annual release
Largest private supersectorNatural resources and mining22.5% of disclosed private covered jobs
Local labor base

Jobs, pay and private-sector concentration

2025
0%COVERED JOBS−2.2%WEEKLY WAGE−0.1%Natural resources and mining22.5%
Annual QCEW counts cover jobs located at reporting establishments. The industry share uses disclosed private covered employment; it is not a resident-employment measure or a forecast.

Workplace source: BLS QCEW — county employment and wages · annual county employment and wages 2025 vs 2024 · pulled 2026-07-31. QCEW counts covered jobs located in the county, not employed residents or the metro score’s CES/LAUS series.

County brief

What the local evidence says

01Decision frame

Union County presents a valuation-versus-income tension: investors prepared to verify rents and resolve conflicting price measures can investigate, while leverage-sensitive buyers should be cautious. Zillow’s $141,561 median home value in 2026-06 was 1.58% lower year over year, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI in 2025 rose 10.29%. These are different vintages and methods: the HPI is not a home value, and the observations cannot be merged into one appreciation conclusion.

02Housing economics

Income underwriting remains incomplete. Market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $911 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not observed asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 0.89%, a carrying-cost input rather than a parcel tax bill. Without a rent-to-price relationship, neither operating income nor cash-flow resilience can be determined.

03Demand & competition

Tax-return migration records show a net outflow of 42 households, and in-movers’ average AGI was $5,524 below that of out-movers; this identifies a smaller, lower-income inflow mix, not a demand forecast. Investor purchase mortgages represented 13.64% of 66 total purchase mortgages, a small transaction base that does not establish buyer competition. At county workplaces, 2025 annual QCEW covered employment declined 2.16%. Natural resources and mining held 22.48% of private covered jobs, the largest disclosed private supersector rather than the whole economy. Together, migration, investor and workplace measures warrant verification of tenant and resale depth at the property level.

04Risk & next checks

Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.20% of building value. This is a county-level model, not a parcel loss estimate; flood-zone status, elevation, condition and insurance quotes remain essential. Realtor.com listing price, active listings, days on market, price-reduced share and pending ratio are not published. That absence prevents a reading of visible MLS supply, asking-price pressure, marketing time and concessions; it also supplies no closed-sale evidence. Next checks are market-rent comps, lease terms, parcel taxes, flood and insurance records, MLS history and closed-sale comps.

Cities & communities

Where people live within Union County

Census-recognized incorporated places and CDPs that intersect this county. The list does not pretend to include every neighborhood or informal community.

Population scale

Largest Census places

ACS 2024 5-year
Morganfield city3.2KSturgis city1.9KBreckinridge Center CDP1.5KUniontown city874Waverly city403
Bars use total place population, not a county-share estimate. An asterisk marks a place that crosses a county line.
Official directory

5 Census places

Population
  1. 01
    Morganfield cityIncorporated place
    3,185
  2. 02
    Sturgis cityIncorporated place
    1,864
  3. 03
    Breckinridge Center CDPCensus-designated place
    1,467
  4. 04
    Uniontown cityIncorporated place
    874
  5. 05
    Waverly cityIncorporated place
    403

Population is the total place-wide ACS estimate, not an allocated county share. A place crossing a county line is labelled explicitly. Source: Census ACS 5-year — cities and communities · ACS 2024 5-year · pulled 2026-07-30.

Risk, demand and competition

The three things a price does not tell you

01
Risk & carrying costFEMA NRI + Census ACS
Dominant hazardinland flooding

0.204% of building value expected lost per year

Effective property tax0.89%

$927 median annual bill

02
DemandIRS SOI household flows
Net migration-42

231 in · 273 out

Arriving vs leaving income−$5,524

$39,710 arriving · $45,234 leaving

03
CompetitionHMDA financed purchases
Purchases by investors13.6%

9 of 66 mortgages

investorother financed
No rent index is published for this county.Zillow’s county rent series does not cover every county, and estimating one from a neighbouring county would be a guess wearing a number’s clothes. Everything above is measured here; no wider market is mapped for it either.
Bear case

What can break the county thesis

  1. Actual market rents may not support the price and carrying-cost assumptions needed for yield underwriting.
  2. Missing Realtor.com listing metrics could conceal thin visible supply, slow marketing or broad asking-price concessions.
  3. Parcel-level inland-flood exposure, insurance cost or condition may differ materially from the county climate model.
Underwriting questions

Before pricing a property

Can gross yield be calculated from this record?

No. Market asking rent is not published, and HUD FMR cannot be substituted for market rent.

What does the supplied record show about MLS supply and marketing time?

No Realtor.com listing price, active-listing, days-on-market, price-reduction or pending-ratio figures are published.

How much investor participation is recorded among purchase mortgages?

Investor purchase mortgages represented 13.64% of 66 total purchase mortgages.