Union County presents a valuation-versus-income tension: investors prepared to verify rents and resolve conflicting price measures can investigate, while leverage-sensitive buyers should be cautious. Zillow’s $141,561 median home value in 2026-06 was 1.58% lower year over year, while FHFA’s repeat-transaction HPI in 2025 rose 10.29%. These are different vintages and methods: the HPI is not a home value, and the observations cannot be merged into one appreciation conclusion.
Income underwriting remains incomplete. Market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $911 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not observed asking rent, and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 0.89%, a carrying-cost input rather than a parcel tax bill. Without a rent-to-price relationship, neither operating income nor cash-flow resilience can be determined.
Tax-return migration records show a net outflow of 42 households, and in-movers’ average AGI was $5,524 below that of out-movers; this identifies a smaller, lower-income inflow mix, not a demand forecast. Investor purchase mortgages represented 13.64% of 66 total purchase mortgages, a small transaction base that does not establish buyer competition. At county workplaces, 2025 annual QCEW covered employment declined 2.16%. Natural resources and mining held 22.48% of private covered jobs, the largest disclosed private supersector rather than the whole economy. Together, migration, investor and workplace measures warrant verification of tenant and resale depth at the property level.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled annual climate-loss ratio is 0.20% of building value. This is a county-level model, not a parcel loss estimate; flood-zone status, elevation, condition and insurance quotes remain essential. Realtor.com listing price, active listings, days on market, price-reduced share and pending ratio are not published. That absence prevents a reading of visible MLS supply, asking-price pressure, marketing time and concessions; it also supplies no closed-sale evidence. Next checks are market-rent comps, lease terms, parcel taxes, flood and insurance records, MLS history and closed-sale comps.