Union County presents a verification-first tension: Zillow’s reported median home value is $210,630 after a 6.44% year-over-year increase, while FHFA’s annual repeat-transaction HPI rose 3.71% and is 58.20% higher over five years. Both point upward, but their methods and observation periods differ, so they are not a combined appreciation rate. Acquisition candidates should investigate income and flood exposure before relying on value momentum; buyers requiring demonstrated cash flow should be cautious.
Income underwriting is the principal gap. County market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is $872 per month, but it is a payment standard rather than an estimate of market rent and cannot substitute for it. Carrying costs include an effective property-tax rate of 0.56% and a $918 median annual tax, both requiring parcel review. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.12% of building value per year, a broad loss model rather than a property-specific insurance quote.
Demand evidence is mixed rather than conclusive. QCEW reports 12,075 annual average covered jobs located at county workplaces, down 1.21% from the prior annual average; Manufacturing, the largest disclosed private supersector, represented 38.25% of private covered employment. This is workplace coverage, not resident employment or a forecast. Tax-return migration was net negative by 12 households, although movers in had average AGI $3,856 higher than movers out. Investors made 14 of 189 purchases, a 7.41% share: participation exists but does not establish pricing power or buyer demand.
For the supplied Realtor.com inventory observation, listing price, active listings, days on market, price-reduced share, and pending ratio are not published. Visible supply, seller concessions, marketing time, and MLS asking-price direction therefore cannot be underwritten. Next checks are parcel flood history and insurance terms, achieved rents and lease-up or vacancy, operating expenses, and current MLS comparables. These omissions prevent a supported cash-flow conclusion and limit interpretation of county-level demand.