Union County is a low-price, conflicting-price-signal case rather than a simple value case; buyers dependent on durable rent coverage or resale liquidity should be cautious, while investigators should test property-level operating costs and demand. Zillow’s median home value was $121,117 in 2026-06, down 10.21% year over year. Separately, FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increased 0.86% year over year and 21.23% cumulatively over five years. The measures use different methods and labeled periods, so the index neither supplies a dollar value nor resolves Zillow’s direction.
Carrying costs sharpen the need for property-specific review. The effective property-tax rate was 0.70%, with a $859 median annual tax. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $973 per month is a payment standard, not an estimate of market asking rent. Because market rent is not published, gross yield cannot be computed. Modeled expected annual building-value loss was 0.21%, with wildfire the dominant hazard; this is a modeled loss ratio rather than an insurance premium or a property-specific loss estimate.
Tax-return migration was net negative by 33 households, and inbound movers’ average AGI was $21,559 below that of outbound movers. These measures describe movers, not all residents or future demand. Non-occupants accounted for 7 of 21 recorded purchase mortgages, or 33.33%, indicating meaningful investor participation within a small transaction base. QCEW annual workplace employment was flat; Trade, transportation, and utilities was the largest disclosed private supersector, with 237 covered jobs representing 30.31% of private covered employment. QCEW is workplace-based covered employment, not resident employment or the county’s entire economy.
No Realtor.com MLS listing price, active-listing, days-on-market, or price-reduction data are published for the labeled 2026-06 inventory period, preventing an assessment of visible supply, seller concessions, and marketing time. Closed-sale evidence, market rent, vacancy, lease terms, insurance quotes, claims history, and property-condition data are also absent. Those omissions prevent cash-flow underwriting, a current liquidity assessment, and a determination of whether wildfire exposure is adequately priced for a specific asset.