Upton County presents a price-point-versus-verification tension: its $129,721 county median home value sits alongside weakening covered-job count, net out-migration, and flood exposure, while listing evidence is thin. It deserves scrutiny from buyers able to underwrite individual rents, insurance, and resale liquidity; buyers requiring documented cash flow or broad resale depth should be cautious. The county record does not establish metro comparability or a forecast.
Both Zillow’s county value and Realtor.com’s MLS observations are labeled 2026-06. Zillow’s median home value rose 0.73% year over year; Realtor.com’s median listing price rose 6.28%. These are distinct measures: the latter is an asking price in the active listing market, not a closed-sale price, and the growth rates should not be blended. No FHFA annual HPI observation is published to provide repeat-transaction context. Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed; HUD’s $1,015 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not asking rent. The effective property-tax rate is 1.08%, with a $1,177 median annual tax.
Annual QCEW records 3,904 covered jobs at county workplaces, down 1.79% from the prior annual average; it is not resident employment or unemployment. Construction, the largest disclosed private supersector, represents 63.19% of private covered jobs. Net migration was -5 tax-return households, although arriving movers had higher average income than departing movers. On MLS, 13 active listings and an 8% pending ratio describe a limited visible listing base rather than prove buyer demand. Measured investor participation was 0% across 26 purchases, limiting recorded non-owner-occupant mortgage competition.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled climate loss equals 0.09% of building value per year. This county-level model is not a parcel flood determination or an insurance quote. Beyond unpublished market rent, missing flood-zone, insurance, property-condition, closed-sale, and property-level tax evidence prevents a defensible all-in carrying-cost and resale underwriting conclusion. These checks matter more here because the available market measures cover a limited visible listing and purchase base.