Uvalde County presents a verification-first tension: price direction is mixed while rental yield cannot be tested. Investors dependent on near-term resale or cash flow should be cautious; investigators should resolve the mismatch before underwriting value. Zillow’s 2026-06 median home value was $198,678, down 3.67% year over year, whereas FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 6.22% annually. FHFA is an index of repeat sales, not a home value; its different vintage and method cannot be combined with Zillow into one growth rate.
Market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,123 per month is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate. Carrying costs need parcel work: the effective property-tax rate is 1.44% and median annual tax is $2,173, but assessed value, tax bill and insurance are not published for a target home.
Tax-return migration shows 483 households in and 542 out, for net migration of -59; in-movers’ average AGI was lower than out-movers’. QCEW measures annual covered employment at county workplaces, not resident employment, and does not establish tenant demand. Recorded non-occupant purchase mortgages were 16 of 168, or 9.52%, showing some investor participation but neither cash-buyer activity nor rental absorption.
Inland flood is the stated dominant hazard, and the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.13% of building value per year; it is not a parcel flood determination or insurance quote. The record lacks market-rent and lease data, Realtor MLS listing-price, active-listing, days-on-market and price-reduction evidence, closed-sale comps, and property-specific flood and insurance costs. Those gaps prevent a yield calculation, a reading of visible supply and seller concessions, and an all-in risk screen. Next checks are lease comps, tax and insurance quotes, flood maps, and sale comparables.