Washington County’s central tension is a current Zillow value gain against a declining FHFA transaction index, making it a verification case rather than an appreciation-led screen. Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value was $156,167, up 6.67% year over year. FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI declined 11.32% over its annual observation. These measures use different methods and vintages; the HPI is not a dollar home value. Appreciation-led underwriting warrants caution until closed-sale comps establish entry value.
Housing economics remain unproven because market asking rent is not published; gross yield therefore cannot be computed. The supplied HUD two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not evidence of achievable asking rent and cannot substitute in a yield calculation. The effective property-tax rate is 1.00%, a carrying-cost input, but parcel tax bills, insurance quotes, vacancy and operating expenses are not published. Those items require verification alongside actual lease comps.
Realtor.com’s MLS listing-market evidence requires separating visible marketing friction from buyer demand. Median days on market were 74, and 20.17% of listings had price reductions; these are marketing-time and seller-concession indicators, not closed-sale prices or proof of demand. Investor mortgages represented 3.45% of 87 purchases, indicating limited measured non-owner participation in this purchase count. Tax-return migration was negative 25 households; movers in reported average income of $41,016 versus $42,348 for movers out. QCEW recorded 6,468 annual average covered jobs at county workplaces, up 0.70%; this is not resident employment or an unemployment measure.
Risk limits remain significant. Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual building loss is 0.09% of building value; this county-level modeled measure does not establish a parcel’s flood zone, insurance availability, deductible or actual loss. The price conflict cannot be resolved without closed-sale comps, and the absence of market rent prevents a yield conclusion. Next checks are parcel-level flood and insurance records, lease comps, taxes and operating statements, plus purchase-level financing and buyer data.