Washington County presents a tension for investors who can verify local rents and deal-level flood costs: Zillow’s county median home value was $398,429 in 2026-06, up 1.14%, while the FHFA repeat-transaction HPI rose 1.60% in 2025 and 76.04% cumulatively over its five-year period. Both supplied changes are positive, but there is no common growth rate: Zillow is a value measure at its own vintage, and FHFA is an index rather than a dollar home value. Cautious buyers should not treat either as rental performance.
Market asking rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed from this record. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot be substituted to calculate yield. Carrying costs also need parcel review: the effective property-tax rate is 0.49%, and median annual property tax is $1,371. Pairing a county value with an unavailable rent and a countywide tax statistic prevents a supportable property-level cash-flow conclusion.
Realtor.com MLS listing-market evidence complicates the value picture: median listing price fell 4.15%, marketing time rose 25.89%, and 21.33% of listings had reductions. These are asking-price, marketing-time, and seller-concession measures—not closed sales or proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration recorded more households moving out than in, although inbound movers had higher average AGI than outbound movers; this income mix does not establish renter demand. Non-owner occupants accounted for five of 126 purchase mortgages, a limited observed buyer footprint rather than a measure of all cash competition.
Risk review should begin with inland flood: modeled annual climate loss equals 0.24% of building value, a county-level model that does not identify a parcel’s zone, insurance premium, or mitigation need. In 2025, QCEW annual covered employment at county workplaces declined; manufacturing was the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole economy. Next checks are current market asking rents, executed leases, property insurance and flood history, parcel tax bills, and closed-sale comparables. Without them, the record cannot establish yield, operating resilience, or exit pricing.