Wayne County presents a verification case, not a clean appreciation thesis. Zillow’s 2026-06 county median home value rose 6.09% year over year, while FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI fell 5.16%; its cumulative five-year change was 64.72%, a separate index result—not a home value or annual growth rate. Because vintages and methods differ, do not average them. Investors needing a valuation anchor should investigate closed-sale comparables and parcel facts; anyone underwriting from one trend series should be cautious.
Economics are constrained by a key absence. The median home value is $187,855, but measured market rent is not published, so gross yield cannot be computed. HUD’s $925 two-bedroom FMR is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate, and cannot fill that gap. The effective property-tax rate is 0.49%, with a $635 median annual tax, but taxes alone do not establish cash flow. Inland flood is the dominant hazard; the modeled climate-loss ratio is 0.23% of building value per year. That county-level model is screening evidence, not a parcel-specific insurance or loss estimate.
Demand and competition are partial signals. Realtor.com shows 51 active listings, a 75-day median marketing time, and a 29.7% pending ratio. These MLS measures are not closed-sale prices or proof of demand; its median listing price is not supplied. Tax-return migration was net positive at 42 households, and average AGI favored inbound movers by $11,082, but that does not establish durable absorption. QCEW records 4,070 annual covered jobs at county workplaces and a $924 average weekly wage. Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector; QCEW is not resident employment or unemployment. Investors made 2 of 89 purchases, or 2.25%: limited participation in this sample, not a market-wide competition measure.
Next checks should close the underwriting gaps: gather bedroom- and condition-specific rents, closed-sale comparables, full operating expenses, financing terms, parcel-level flood maps, and insurance quotes. Verify whether the small covered-job base and listing sample fit the subject’s submarket; metro context is not supplied, so no metro conclusion is supported. Until then, this record supports county screening, not a reliable yield, valuation, or flood-cost conclusion.