Tennessee rental market data

Across 23 measured metros, the median home-price increase was 1.9%, compared with 1.4% rent growth. The supplied rent-minus-price spread was -0.4 percentage points. The ranges were also broad: price growth ran from -0.4% to 6.7%, while rent growth among 16 measured metros ran from 0.3% to 6.2%.

Sevierville was a clear local exception, with rent at $1,698 and rent growth of 11.9% alongside a $409,653 price and a 1.3% price decline. Greeneville recorded 6.4% rent growth against 3.3% price growth, and Kingsport recorded 6.0% against 1.2%. These figures support market-specific rent and basis screening, but they do not establish whether the rent increases are durable, apply to every property type, or represent achieved rent for a specific unit.

Among the 22 metros with months-of-supply data, the median was 4.2 months, with a 3.2-to-6.0-month range. Median days on market were 62.5, and the median share of listings with price cuts was 29.7%, ranging from 23.6% to 32.9%. That combination points to a purchase market where pricing and exit liquidity need to be checked rather than assumed.

Local conditions diverged materially. Sevierville had 11.3 months of supply, 67 days on market, and 29.3% price cuts, while Lewisburg had 4.4 months, 78 days, and 32.2% cuts. Union City had 133 days on market, 6.2 months of supply, and a 92.1% sale-to-list ratio; Martin had only 2.8 months of supply but an 87-day median and a 93.8% sale-to-list ratio. These resale measures do not establish rental vacancy, lease-up time, or property-level operating performance.

The migration data are a genuine positive counter-signal: all 95 counties in the migration measure were covered, with 221,190 movers in, 196,648 movers out, and net migration of 24,542. Net migration was 3.5 per 1,000 residents. This supports checking tenant demand in markets that can demonstrate local capture of that movement.

Employment does not provide an equally uniform signal. Metro job growth had a 0.2% median and ranged from -0.7% to 0.9%. McMinnville and Kingsport showed 1.2% job growth, while Knoxville showed 0.9%. The combination suggests testing employer and income depth at the market level; aggregate migration does not prove rental demand, renter qualification, or sustained job creation in a particular submarket.

The 23-metro median was a $294,345 price, $1,455 monthly rent, 5.6% gross yield, 26.0% rent-to-income ratio, and 4.7 price-to-income ratio. The measured yield range was 4.9% to 6.9%; rent-to-income ranged from 21.4% to 30.5%. The metro rent-to-FMR2 median was 120.4%, with a range from 99.4% to 158.4%, so HUD's two-bedroom benchmark does not align uniformly with measured market rents.

Jackson paired a $210,372 price with $1,455 rent and an 8.3% gross yield, but its rent-to-income ratio was 28.5%. Union City had a lower $168,371 price, $1,021 rent, and 7.3% gross yield, with a 22.4% rent-to-income ratio. Memphis had a $247,919 price, $1,435 rent, and 6.9% gross yield. These are screening inputs, not net returns: the packet does not supply financing, insurance, maintenance, management, or other property-level expenses.

Across 95 counties, the median investor share of purchases was 7.5%, with a 4.2% to 12.6% distribution. The packet recorded 88,843 total purchases and 9,477 investor purchases. This supports treating investor competition as a local market condition rather than a statewide constant.

Sevier County stood well above the county distribution with 602 investor purchases out of 1,622 total and a 37.1% investor share. Shelby County recorded 1,950 investor purchases out of 8,318 and a 23.4% share, while Haywood County recorded 20 out of 104 and a 19.2% share. Their reported gross yields were 5.0%, 7.5%, and 6.3%, respectively. Investor share identifies purchase competition, not rental performance or the cause of local price movement.

Among the 95 counties, 79 had inland flood as the leading FEMA hazard label and 16 had earthquake as the leading label. These labels are mutually exclusive county-level classifications, not parcel-level exposure determinations. The county climate-loss-ratio median was 0.16%, with a 0.12% to 0.23% range; the median effective property-tax rate was 0.47%, with a 0.37% to 0.59% range, and the median tax bill was $921.

County examples show why the screen must remain local. Lake County had a 0.39% climate loss ratio, a 0.67% tax rate, and a $653 median tax; Perry County had 0.32%, 0.53%, and $675; Dyer County had 0.31%, 0.63%, and $1,047. Shelby County's effective tax rate was 0.98% and its median tax was $2,429, while its climate loss ratio was 0.18%. The packet does not provide parcel-level hazard, insurance premium, or deductible data, so these figures cannot substitute for property-specific risk review.