WHAT THE STATE DISTRIBUTION SAYSWithin the 24 current published direct-evidence ZIP reports, June 2026 Zillow ZORI, an observed asking-rent index, has a median current rent of $1,572.50 and ranges from $1,075 to $2,417—a $1,342 spread. The endpoints in Memphis and Franklin make the practical question location-specific: is the budget fit evaluated against the relevant ZIP report rather than a statewide midpoint? This is a distribution of reports with direct Zillow evidence, not a census of every Tennessee ZIP, neighborhood, or rental property; a listed level is a market index rather than an advertised unit availability. It provides a common comparison set for checking whether a target budget lies near the reported middle or an endpoint.
Affordability and burden point to related but noninterchangeable questions. ACS 2024 five-year ZCTA estimates, which describe statistical areas rather than identical USPS delivery ZIPs, put the mechanically calculated asking-rent-to-median-income range at 18.1%–35.3%, with a 23.9% median. The corresponding 30% income screen requires $43,000–$96,680 annually. That is a current asking-rent and median-income comparison, whereas the ACS renter-burden measure is the share of renter households paying 30% or more of gross rent: 38.5%–57.3%, with a 47.8% median. Thus a ZIP's screen can look manageable while a sizeable surveyed renter share remains burdened, without making one metric a substitute for the other.
Rent momentum comes only from direct monthly Zillow series and should be read separately from monthly movement variability. The one-year annualized change runs from -2.3% to 5.4%, with a 1.1% median: the reported decline is in Spring Hill, while the highest gain is in Bartlett. Those endpoints coexist with published histories labeled cooling, stable growth, mixed, high variability, and accelerating, rather than a uniform pattern. Annualized volatility spans 1.6%–4.5%, median 2.8%; accordingly, a recent gain or decline does not by itself establish how uneven the path was. Use the growth and volatility readings as retrospective descriptions, not a forecast or explanation of future rents.
HUD adds a different comparison, not a confirmation of the Zillow level. In the displayed reports, its two-bedroom FMR/SAFMR standard ranges from $1,190 to $2,150, while Zillow asking rent divided by that benchmark ranges from 79.0% to 119.8%, median 99.7%. The ratio is useful for aligning a market-wide asking-rent index with an administrative bedroom standard, but it does not mean the index describes a two-bedroom lease or that HUD is a market quote. At property level, bedroom count, unit-specific terms, timing, and actual availability can differ from both measures; verify a given listing and any program's applicable rule directly. Neither series captures a specific property's concession, fee schedule, or lease duration.
