Davidson County is a selective rental case: measured market rent is published, but Zillow's county median home value is falling while rent is nearly flat, and FHFA supplies a separate positive signal. Buyers should investigate property-level operations; yield-focused buyers should be cautious about treating the headline yield as durable. Zillow's June 2026 price was $435,040, down 3.28% year over year, while median asking rent was $1,824, down 0.23%. Gross yield is 5.03% before costs. FHFA's annual 2025 repeat-transaction HPI rose 1.01% and gained 48.69% over five years; it is an index, not a home value, and must not be averaged with Zillow.
Carrying costs make the headline figure a screening result, not cash yield. Effective property tax is 0.60%, with median annual tax of $2,506; insurance, repairs, vacancy, management, financing and flood deductibles are not supplied. HUD's two-bedroom FMR is $1,730, while market rent is 5.40% above it: FMR is a payment standard, not asking-rent evidence. The price-rent combination requires unit-level rent verification and a full expense stack, especially because the price is a median home value, not a closed-sale price.
Demand evidence is mixed. Tax-return data show net migration of 1,882, but average AGI favors out-movers by $936, weakening the inference that inflow adds purchasing power. QCEW shows covered employment down while average weekly wage rose; its largest disclosed private supersector is Education and health services. That is workplace payroll evidence, not resident employment or a forecast. Realtor.com shows active listings up 10.18% and price reductions at 23.14%, indicating visible supply and seller concessions, not closed-sale demand. Investor mortgages were 12.73% of 9,472 purchases, making competition material without proving investor dominance.
Because inland flood is the dominant hazard, next checks are parcel-level maps, elevation, claims, insurance premiums and deductibles. The modeled annual building-value loss ratio is 0.14%, but it is not a quote or a property-specific loss estimate. Also obtain closed-sale comps, lease-level rents, vacancy, operating expenses, financing terms and tenant-income or renewal data. Without them, gross yield cannot establish net cash flow, and county aggregates cannot establish this property's flood or rent performance.