Cheatham County’s underwriting tension is a measured market-rent yield against conflicting short-run price signals. The Zillow county reading labeled 2026-06 reports a $400,315 median home value, $1,653 monthly median asking rent, and a 4.96% gross yield before costs. Yet Zillow’s value measure rose, while the FHFA annual repeat-transaction HPI labeled 2025 fell 0.06%. Those are different methods and vintages, not a common growth interval or a blended price trend. This warrants investigation by buyers relying on resale assumptions and caution from investors whose costs leave little room below the stated gross yield.
Published market rent is the basis for that yield; it is not HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $1,730. The asking rent is below that HUD payment standard, which may inform subsidy parameters but does not estimate achievable market rent. Carrying costs begin with a 0.47% effective property-tax rate, but insurance, maintenance, vacancy, financing, and property-level assessments are not published. Therefore the record supports gross, not net, income analysis, particularly given the county’s inland-flood exposure.
Realtor.com’s MLS evidence, also labeled 2026-06, shows a 65-day median marketing time and price reductions on 20.00% of listings. These are asking-market measures of marketing time and seller concessions, not closed-sale prices or independent proof of buyer demand. Tax-return migration was net positive, and average income of movers in exceeded that of movers out; the data do not establish household formation or tenant demand. Non-owner purchase mortgages represented 6.45% of 667 purchases, indicating some investor participation but not the cash-buyer share or prices paid by investors.
QCEW’s 2025 annual series reports covered workplace employment up 1.68%, with Manufacturing the largest disclosed private supersector; it is neither resident employment nor an unemployment or forecast measure. Modeled climate loss is 0.18% of building value annually, consistent with inland flood as the dominant hazard, but it does not replace parcel-level flood, elevation, or insurance review. Next checks are property rent comps, lease terms, flood zone and insurance quotes, operating expenses, financing, and closed-sale comparables. Their absence prevents a net-cash-flow conclusion, a defensible purchase basis, and a determination of whether listed-market softness translates to transactions.