High gross yield under FEMA loss exposure
Which US metros combine an above-median gross yield with an at-or-below-median FEMA annualized building-loss ratio?
Gross yield and hazard exposure answer different underwriting questions. This study keeps them on separate axes, uses the complete direct metro intersection, and retains employment as a counter-signal.
- Complete metro set
- 696 direct Zillow, FEMA and BLS evidence
- Higher yield / lower loss
- 159 clears both descriptive median rules
- Median gross yield
- 5.9% rent × 12 ÷ home value
- Median annual loss
- 0.143% FEMA building-value loss ratio
A lower FEMA ratio does not rescue a weak demand signal
The complete intersection contains 696 metros. Its unweighted medians are 5.9% gross yield and 0.143% annualized FEMA building-loss exposure. 159 metros sit at or above the yield line while staying at or below the loss line. Another 189 clear the yield line with above-median loss exposure, which is precisely why the two measures remain separate.
Roanoke Rapids, NC has the highest gross yield in the lower-loss screen at 11.7%. Its FEMA ratio is 0.127%, its dominant hazard is inland flooding, and current employment changes -0.9%. That jobs reading prevents the first row from becoming a recommendation based on two favorable coordinates.
FEMA exposure is not an expense estimate. Gross yield is not net of insurance. The chart is a due-diligence queue, not a risk-adjusted return model.
The lowest FEMA ratio inside the screen belongs to Eagle Pass, TX at 0.061%, paired with a 7.0% gross yield. The strongest employment reading belongs to Oxford, MS at 2.9%; its yield and loss ratio are 6.1% and 0.123%. Use the interactive explorer to change the cutoffs without changing the definitions.
Gross yield and annualized building-loss exposure
Upper-left clears the two median rules. Dot size represents metro population.
The first 24 rows, with a path to the underlying market
| Screen order | Metro | Gross yield | FEMA annual loss | Dominant hazard | Jobs YoY | Next step |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roanoke Rapids, NC$107k home · $1,048 rent | 11.7% | 0.127% | inland flooding | -0.9% | Open explorer |
| 2 | Macomb, IL$99k home · $919 rent | 11.1% | 0.118% | inland flooding | -3.5% | Open explorer |
| 3 | Danville, IL$99k home · $881 rent | 10.7% | 0.127% | inland flooding | -2.4% | Open explorer |
| 4 | Houghton, MI$198k home · $1,769 rent | 10.7% | 0.089% | inland flooding | -0.9% | Open explorer |
| 5 | Sault Ste. Marie, MI$201k home · $1,700 rent | 10.2% | 0.061% | inland flooding | -1.4% | Open explorer |
| 6 | Ozark, AL$165k home · $1,383 rent | 10.1% | 0.130% | inland flooding | 0.2% | Open explorer |
| 7 | Decatur, IL$128k home · $1,030 rent | 9.7% | 0.140% | inland flooding | -0.5% | Open explorer |
| 8 | Ogdensburg, NY$151k home · $1,173 rent | 9.3% | 0.119% | inland flooding | 0.1% | Open explorer |
| 9 | Monroe, LA$168k home · $1,271 rent | 9.1% | 0.103% | inland flooding | 1.1% | Open explorer |
| 10 | Pottsville, PA$170k home · $1,267 rent | 9.0% | 0.131% | inland flooding | 0.1% | Open explorer |
| 11 | Somerset, KY$184k home · $1,360 rent | 8.9% | 0.131% | inland flooding | 1.5% | Open explorer |
| 12 | Mount Pleasant, TX$223k home · $1,641 rent | 8.8% | 0.114% | inland flooding | -7.3% | Open explorer |
| 13 | Shreveport, LA$186k home · $1,358 rent | 8.8% | 0.123% | inland flooding | 0.0% | Open explorer |
| 14 | Laurel, MS$156k home · $1,133 rent | 8.7% | 0.142% | inland flooding | 0.8% | Open explorer |
| 15 | Sumter, SC$209k home · $1,504 rent | 8.6% | 0.132% | inland flooding | 0.3% | Open explorer |
| 16 | Johnstown, PA$121k home · $863 rent | 8.6% | 0.080% | inland flooding | -1.0% | Open explorer |
| 17 | Wichita Falls, TX$179k home · $1,277 rent | 8.5% | 0.119% | inland flooding | -0.3% | Open explorer |
| 18 | DuBois, PA$145k home · $1,029 rent | 8.5% | 0.114% | inland flooding | 0.0% | Open explorer |
| 19 | Elmira, NY$164k home · $1,155 rent | 8.4% | 0.097% | inland flooding | 0.0% | Open explorer |
| 20 | Sandusky, OH$243k home · $1,689 rent | 8.4% | 0.114% | inland flooding | 2.1% | Open explorer |
| 21 | Del Rio, TX$212k home · $1,478 rent | 8.3% | 0.092% | inland flooding | -1.1% | Open explorer |
| 22 | Greenwood, SC$176k home · $1,214 rent | 8.3% | 0.103% | inland flooding | 2.2% | Open explorer |
| 23 | Waycross, GA$171k home · $1,163 rent | 8.2% | 0.143% | inland flooding | -0.1% | Open explorer |
| 24 | Jacksonville, TX$234k home · $1,580 rent | 8.1% | 0.108% | inland flooding | 0.8% | Open explorer |
The visible table is intentionally limited for reading. The CSV contains every row that passes the printed inclusion rule.
Inclusion first, interpretation second.
Include every RentMarker metro with direct Zillow ZHVI and ZORI, a population-weighted FEMA annualized building-loss ratio and a named BLS employment series. Compute unweighted medians across that complete intersection, then place every metro into one of four yield/loss groups. The screen group is yield at or above the median with loss exposure at or below the median; no group receives a composite score.
Methodology version: v4Method
- Gross yield is current monthly Zillow ZORI multiplied by 12 and divided by Zillow ZHVI.
- Metro FEMA exposure is the population-weighted average of member-county annualized building-loss ratios from the National Risk Index.
- Median lines are descriptive boundaries computed from the same complete metro universe; BLS employment change remains a separate counter-signal.
Counter-signals
- Gross yield is before insurance, taxes, vacancy, repairs, management and financing, so FEMA exposure is not an expense adjustment to that yield.
- A lower-half FEMA ratio is not a safe-market label; each metro still has a dominant hazard and property-level exposure can differ sharply.
- Several high-yield, lower-loss metros have flat or declining employment, which can weaken the demand case despite clearing the two-axis screen.
Limitations
- FEMA NRI is not an insurance quote, parcel flood map or prediction of a specific loss; property construction, elevation and policy terms remain unknown.
- Zillow, FEMA, Census and BLS releases cover different periods, so the chart is a current joined screen rather than a synchronized causal model.
- Metro averages can conceal county, city and neighborhood differences, and median boundaries change when the complete source universe changes.
Every input release used by this study
Release and retrieval dates stay visible so a reader can tell whether two measures describe the same moment.