Eagle Pass, TX

Eagle Pass, TX enters this review with a usable cross-section of direct measures but without the Zillow history field needed for a rent-momentum comparison. This metropolitan or micropolitan statistical area has a population of 58082. At 2026-06-30, Zillow reports an asking-rent index of $1300 and a home-value index of $222762; however, the trailing-12-month Zillow rent change is unavailable. Accordingly, Eagle Pass is intentionally unranked, and this report assigns neither a score nor a rank. A current asking-rent level can establish a present reference point, but it cannot establish whether comparable rents moved over a year. The decision question is therefore narrower: whether the income, listing, construction, migration, mortgage, hazard, and cost-level measures expose inconsistencies that warrant further investigation before a directional conclusion.

Zillow’s rent/value economics are mixed rather than a stand-alone return finding. The packet lists a 0.07 gross yield alongside the $1300 asking-rent index and $222762 home-value index. Zillow’s home-value index shows a -0.0041 year-over-year change as of 2026-06-30. These facts place a current rent-to-value relationship beside a negative value change, but neither substitutes for the missing trailing-12-month rent change. In particular, a gross yield is not a net-income measure, and Zillow’s asking-rent and home-value indexes are distinct indexes rather than evidence of executed leases, sale proceeds, operating costs, financing terms, or holding-period performance. The important tension is not proof of weakening or strengthening; it is that a fixed rent level and a value change answer different questions, while the rent trend that could connect them is unavailable.

Census ACS reports median household income of $49568 and the packet’s rent-to-income measure is 0.3147, while its price-to-income measure is 4.49. HUD lists a FY2026 two-bedroom Fair Market Rent of $973. Zillow’s $1300 asking-rent index is $327 above that HUD amount, a difference calculated from the supplied levels, and the supplied rent-to-FMR ratio is 1.336. This is an affordability boundary rather than confirmation of what every household pays or can pay. Census ACS describes household income, HUD provides a two-bedroom program benchmark, and Zillow supplies an asking-rent index; those are related but noninterchangeable measures. The apparent spread between the Zillow and HUD figures deserves definition checks on unit type, rent concept, and coverage before it is treated as a broad statement about lease affordability.

Supply evidence is not a single time series. BLS CES reports a 0.0207 labor change for the 12 months through 2026-06. The Census Building Permits Survey records 78 total permits through 2026 M06, 0 in its separately reported 5+ category, and 1.34 permits per 1000 residents. Redfin, for 2026-05-01, reports 10.0 months of for-sale supply versus 6.7 previously, 167 median days on market versus 154, and a 0.15 price-drop share versus 0.1436. The supplied changes are 3.3 months of supply, calculated as 10.0 minus 6.7, 13 additional median days, and a 0.0064 increase in price-drop share. BLS employment, Census permit authorizations, and Redfin for-sale listings have different periods and definitions. Permits are not completions, while Redfin inventory is not a direct measure of rental availability; the data therefore run alongside one another without establishing a causal supply narrative.

Demand-side indicators likewise cover different universes. IRS county-to-county tax-return migration, aggregated to Eagle Pass, shows 767 moved in and 991 moved out, for net migration of -224. The associated incoming adjusted gross income is $44026 and outgoing adjusted gross income is $44127, with a supplied gap of -$101. HMDA provides a separate lens: its 2024 purchase-mortgage occupancy evidence shows 322 total purchases, 28 investor purchases, and an investor share of 0.087. The IRS figures do not identify every housing seeker or every transaction, and HMDA does not enumerate all purchases or all rental ownership. Consequently, net migration, income flows, and investor participation cannot be combined into a claim about total housing demand. They do identify a useful verification gap between population movement and the mortgage-financed purchase segment.

FEMA’s National Risk Index identifies inland flood as the top hazard, with hazard type listed as water. Its expected annual loss ratio is 0.000612 and its risk score is 64.2; the packet provides no external score benchmark, so the score should not be converted into a comparative risk ranking. Available 2024 cost-level evidence adds another important distinction. Regional price parity is 83.805 for all items and 53.681 for housing, with housing 30.124 points below all items and a supplied housing-to-all-items ratio of 0.640547. Goods are 93.757, utilities are 81.86, and other services are 96.24. These are cost-level indexes, not current lease terms or insurance costs. A lower housing relative-price level can coexist with Zillow asking rent above HUD’s two-bedroom FMR because the measures use different concepts, scopes, and periods; FEMA risk adds a separate exposure dimension rather than resolving that difference.

The practical due-diligence record for Eagle Pass should keep the unresolved tests separate rather than force a single market story. Decision-critical questions include whether Zillow asking-rent index coverage and unit mix align with the offerings being evaluated; whether the HUD FMR comparison is being made on like-for-like bedroom and rent definitions; and whether the Redfin inventory increase persists when periods are aligned with BLS and Census Building Permits data. The 78 permits require context on their pipeline status because authorizations are not completions. IRS migration requires a matching period before comparison with current labor data, while HMDA’s 2024 investor share requires context on transactions outside its purchase-mortgage scope. Finally, FEMA’s market-level inland-flood evidence and the 2024 cost-level indexes cannot determine location-specific exposure or expense. Until those questions are resolved, the evidence supports a focused, unranked review rather than a rent-growth conclusion, a market score, or a rank.