Coles County offers a low-dollar basis and reported cash yield, but the underwriting tension is whether those economics offset weaker labor and mover evidence. It warrants investigation by buyers who can verify unit income and flood costs; buyers dependent on rapid resale or broad tenant growth should be cautious. Zillow’s June 2026 median home value was $141,526, up 5.97% year over year, versus FHFA’s 2025 repeat-transaction HPI increase of 1.55%. The measures have different vintages and methods: FHFA is not a home value, and their growth rates should not be combined.
Median asking rent of $778 per month is measured market rent, supporting the reported 6.60% gross yield before operating costs. HUD’s two-bedroom FMR of $965 is a payment standard, not an asking-rent estimate or a substitute yield input. The 1.94% effective property-tax rate is a material carrying-cost check against rent and price, but the record lacks property-specific assessments, insurance, repairs, vacancy and utilities. It therefore cannot establish net operating income or debt coverage.
QCEW’s 2025 annual average covered workplace employment declined 1.30%; it is neither resident employment nor a forecast. Education and health services is the largest disclosed private supersector, not the whole county economy. Tax-return migration was net negative 141 households, while departing movers’ average AGI exceeded arrivals’ by $10,202. Investors represented 11.92% of 386 purchase mortgages: a competing buyer segment, not proof of rent demand or pricing power.
Inland flood is the dominant hazard, and modeled annual climate loss equals 0.18% of building value; that modeled ratio is not an insurance quote or a property loss estimate. The record publishes no Realtor.com listing-price, active-listing, days-on-market, price-reduction or pending data, so visible MLS supply, marketing time and seller concessions cannot be tested. Next, underwrite flood-zone and insurance terms, property condition and lease rolls; these missing facts prevent a parcel-level income, liquidity and hazard conclusion.